It all comes down to the final day for Burnley as they go into their last game of the season at home to Newcastle United with their fate in their own hands.

A 1-1 draw with Aston Villa on Thursday night saw Mike Jackson's side edge out of the relegation zone, and they simply need to match Leeds United's score on the final day to secure another season of Premier League football.

Match preview

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The battle for Premier League survival is now down to two teams after Everton secured their top-flight status on Thursday night, and of those two teams it is Burnley who enter the final day in the strongest position.

The equation for Jackson's men is simple: match or better Leeds' score, and they will enjoy a seventh successive season in the top flight next term. Burnley's vastly superior goal difference over Leeds means that a win over Newcastle would be enough, regardless of what Jesse Marsch's side do away to Brentford.

However, there is only goal difference separating the two sides either side of the dreaded dotted line, so any failure by Burnley to win would open the door for Leeds to leapfrog them at the final hurdle.

It is a precarious situation, then, and one that Burnley so nearly avoided during Thursday's 1-1 draw with Aston Villa, when Ashley Barnes gave them the lead from the spot only for Emiliano Buendia to earn the hosts a point at Villa Park.

Should Burnley end up going down then they will look back on Wout Weghorst's late missed chance in that match - or more accurately, Tyrone Mings's remarkable goalline block - as a particularly costly moment.

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Nevertheless, the point means that the Clarets crucially still have matters in their own hands with 90 minutes of their season to play - a position they would have no doubt taken when they sacked long-serving boss Sean Dyche with four points separating them from safety.

After 10 points from a possible 12 in his first four games at the helm, the Jackson revival has stalled somewhat with only one point from their next three outings, but even that may be enough should Leeds lose at Brentford.

Among Burnley's advantages over Leeds on the final day is the fact that they are at home, where the Clarets have won three of their last four games - as many as they had in their previous 26 at Turf Moor.

That home record looks even stronger when compared to Newcastle's recent away record, which has seen them lose four of their last five games on the road, including shipping five goals against both Tottenham Hotspur and Manchester City since the start of April.

However, Burnley have lost their final game of the season every year since they were last promoted to the top flight for the 2016-17 campaign - a five-year losing streak which could prove decisive if it stretches to six on Sunday.

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In contrast, Newcastle have won on the final day in six of the last seven seasons, and they come into this match both more rested and in better form than their hosts.

It was not too long ago that this fixture was being touted as a potential final-day relegation decider, with Newcastle sat in the bottom three at Christmas and winning just one of their first 20 games of the campaign - incidentally against Burnley in the reverse of this contest.

The turnaround since then has been remarkable, though, with only Liverpool, Man City and Tottenham having picked up more Premier League points than the Magpies so far this calendar year.

Indeed, Eddie Howe's men have already won more games in 2022 than they managed in both 2021 and 2020, and a top-half finish remains possible should they win, Brighton & Hove Albion lose and Brentford fail to win on the final day.

That would provide a solid base to build off looking ahead to next season, and Monday night's 2-0 win over Champions League-chasing Arsenal will have only raised hope that the newly-wealthy Magpies could push for Europe themselves in 2022-23.

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Newcastle have won five of their last seven outings - Liverpool and Man City being the only teams to prevent them from winning in that time - although their only away triumph since March 10 was at rock-bottom Norwich City.

Burnley will be hoping that such poor away form continues this weekend, while the hosts' greater need for the points could also be a deciding factor with Howe admitting that he already has one eye on the summer transfer window.

However, the Clarets do have a poor record in this fixture of late, with their 1-0 defeat in the reverse making it three Newcastle wins on the bounce in the Premier League.

You have to go back to 2014 for the last time Newcastle won four consecutive Premier League games against an opponent - Queens Park Rangers on that occasion - but doing so this weekend could have a major impact on the futures of both Burnley and Leeds.

Team News

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Burnley's survival bid has not been helped by their lengthy end-of-season absentee list, with as many as seven players possibly missing this crucial match.

There were no new injury concerns from the draw with Villa, but Matthew Lowton was shown a controversial red card which will rule him out of this contest.

That further limits Jackson's defensive options, with Erik Pieters a long-term absentee and Ben Mee unlikely to recover in time for a possible Turf Moor farewell.

Mee does have the option to extend his expiring contract by a further year, but it looks increasingly likely to be a Burnley goodbye for his centre-back partner James Tarkowski, who is also out of contract in the summer.

Tarkowski returned from injury last time out and should captain the side again, while Dale Stephens was also back on the bench for the Aston Villa clash.

Jay Rodriguez is the next most likely of the injury list to return for this game, rated at 50-50 by Jackson, but Johann Berg Gudmundsson, Ashley Westwood and Matej Vydra remain sidelined.

Barnes is expected to lead the line again ahead of Weghorst and alongside Maxwel Cornet, the latter of whom is Burnley's top-scorer at Turf Moor this season but reportedly has a relegation release clause in his contract.

The futures of many players will become clearer depending on Burnley's fate, but alongside Tarkowski and Mee, Barnes, Jack Cork, Vydra, Stephens, Aaron Lennon, Pieters and Phil Bardsley are all currently due to be out of contract this summer.

Newcastle's out-of-contract list is significantly shorter - Sean Longstaff the only permanent player who is due to leave this summer as things stand - but their injury list is even longer than that of their hosts.

Chris Wood, who swapped Turf Moor for St James' Park in January, will undergo a late fitness test with Howe hopeful that he will be ready, while a late decision will also be made on Fabian Schar due to concussion protocols after he came off against Arsenal.

Kieran Trippier was back on the bench for that match and could come into the starting XI for this one, taking the place of Emil Krafth.

However, Howe described that performance as the best of his reign so far, so other changes may be kept to a minimum.

Ryan Fraser is doubtful due to a tight hamstring, Javi Manquillo has chickenpox and Jonjo Shelvey, Joe Willock and Jamal Lewis are all definitely out for this game.

Callum Wilson is expected to lead the line again after causing Arsenal problems last time out, and he should be joined in the front three by Allan Saint-Maximin, who has been linked with a move away this summer.

No player has been directly involved in more Premier League goals for Newcastle than Saint-Maximin this season, although January arrival Bruno Guimaraes is closing in on that figure following his fifth for the club against Arsenal.

Burnley possible starting lineup:
Pope; Collins, Tarkowski, Long; Roberts, Brownhill, Cork, McNeil, Taylor; Cornet, Barnes

Newcastle United possible starting lineup:
Dubravka; Trippier, Lascelles, Burn, Targett; Longstaff, Guimaraes, Joelinton; Almiron, Wilson, Saint-Maximin

We say: Burnley 1-0 Newcastle United

At any other stage of the season it might be difficult to back a Burnley win here, but the result is so much more important to the hosts than it is to Newcastle, and that could make the difference in a game of fine margins.

Burnley are also in good form at home, whereas Newcastle's away form has been poor of late, so we are backing the home side to pick up the win they need to stay in the Premier League for another season.

For additional data used by our team to analyse our suggested result please click here.

Written by
Barney Corkhill

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