Champions League

Champions League | Group Stage

Oct 4, 2023 at 8pm UK

Signal-Iduna-Park

Dortmund
0 - 0
AC Milan

Schlotterbeck (19'), Can (25'), Hummels (81')

Reijnders (23'), Musah (88')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Wednesday's Champions League clash between Borussia Dortmund and AC Milan, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Borussia Dortmund

All competitions

Champions League

Last Game: Hoffenheim 1-3 Dortmund
Friday, September 29 at 7.30pm in Bundesliga

Goals
for

Top scorers

AC Milan

All competitions

Champions League

Last Game: AC Milan 2-0 Lazio
Saturday, September 30 at 5pm in Serie A

Goals
for

Top scorers

We said: Borussia Dortmund 1-0 AC Milan

Unbeaten on home soil since August 2022, Dortmund can prolong their hot streak at Signal Iduna Park against a depleted Milan team, whose midfield options are severely limited at the minute. The Rossoneri already struggle for prolific attacking displays in the Champions League, and while making the net ripple domestically is never normally an issue for Pioli's team, their powers should wane against a Dortmund side who possess plenty of defensive wherewithal in front of the home crowd. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Borussia Dortmund win with a probability of 49.7%. A win for AC Milan had a probability of 27.64% and a draw had a probability of 22.7%.

The most likely scoreline for a Borussia Dortmund win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.46%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.64%) and 2-0 (7.09%). The likeliest AC Milan win was 1-2 (6.8%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.19%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 4.1% likelihood.

Result
Borussia Dortmund	Draw	AC Milan
49.7% ( -0.25)	22.66% ( 0.19)	27.64% ( 0.06)

Both teams to score 62.16% (

-0.65)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

61.81% (

-0.87)

38.19% (

0.88)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

39.53% (

-0.94)

60.46% (

0.94)

Borussia Dortmund Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

84.36% (

-0.4)

15.63% (

0.41)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

55.35% (

-0.76)

44.65% (

0.76)

AC Milan Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

73.68% (

-0.42)

26.32% (

0.41)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

38.54% (

-0.56)

61.45% (

0.56)

Score Analysis

Borussia Dortmund 49.7%

AC Milan 27.64%

Draw 22.65%

Borussia Dortmund	Draw	AC Milan
2-1 @ 9.46% ( 0.02) 1-0 @ 7.64% ( 0.21) 2-0 @ 7.09% ( 0.1) 3-1 @ 5.85% ( -0.07) 3-0 @ 4.38% 3-2 @ 3.9% ( -0.09) 4-1 @ 2.71% ( -0.07) 4-0 @ 2.03% ( -0.03) 4-2 @ 1.81% ( -0.07) 5-1 @ 1.01% ( -0.04) Other @ 3.82% Total : 49.7%	1-1 @ 10.19% ( 0.17) 2-2 @ 6.31% ( -0.06) 0-0 @ 4.12% ( 0.17) 3-3 @ 1.74% ( -0.06) Other @ 0.3% Total : 22.65%	1-2 @ 6.8% ( 0.03) 0-1 @ 5.49% ( 0.16) 0-2 @ 3.67% ( 0.07) 1-3 @ 3.03% ( -0.02) 2-3 @ 2.81% ( -0.06) 0-3 @ 1.63% ( 0.01) 1-4 @ 1.01% ( -0.02) 2-4 @ 0.94% ( -0.03) Other @ 2.27% Total : 27.64%