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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 38.16%. A win for Birmingham City had a probability of 33.31% and a draw had a probability of 28.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.21%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.87%) and 2-0 (7.24%). The likeliest Birmingham City win was 0-1 (11.2%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.28%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 4.3% likelihood.
Result | ||
Derby County | Draw | Birmingham City |
38.16% | 28.53% | 33.31% |
Both teams to score 46.02% |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
39.66% | 60.34% |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
19.5% | 80.5% |
Derby County Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
69.42% | 30.57% |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
33.19% | 66.81% |
Birmingham City Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
66.28% | 33.72% |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
29.63% | 70.37% |
Score Analysis |
Derby County | Draw | Birmingham City |
1-0 @ 12.21% 2-1 @ 7.87% 2-0 @ 7.24% 3-1 @ 3.11% 3-0 @ 2.86% 3-2 @ 1.69% 4-1 @ 0.92% Other @ 2.26% Total : 38.16% | 1-1 @ 13.28% 0-0 @ 10.3% 2-2 @ 4.28% Other @ 0.66% Total : 28.52% | 0-1 @ 11.2% 1-2 @ 7.22% 0-2 @ 6.09% 1-3 @ 2.62% 0-3 @ 2.21% 2-3 @ 1.55% Other @ 2.41% Total : 33.3% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | West Bromwich AlbionWest Brom | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 5 | 7 | 16 |
2 | Sunderland | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 6 | 8 | 15 |
3 | Blackburn RoversBlackburn | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 14 | 6 | 8 | 15 |
4 | Burnley | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 4 | 9 | 14 |
5 | Leeds UnitedLeeds | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 12 | 4 | 8 | 14 |
6 | Sheffield UnitedSheff Utd | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 9 | 3 | 6 | 13 |
7 | Watford | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 10 | 2 | 13 |
8 | Middlesbrough | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 11 |
9 | Swansea CitySwansea | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 11 |
10 | Norwich CityNorwich | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 9 | 2 | 11 |
11 | Oxford UnitedOxford Utd | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 8 | 2 | 10 |
12 | Hull City | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 8 | 1 | 9 |
13 | Derby CountyDerby | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 9 |
14 | Bristol City | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 13 | -4 | 9 |
15 | Millwall | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 10 | 2 | 8 |
16 | Plymouth ArgylePlymouth | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 11 | -3 | 8 |
17 | Queens Park RangersQPR | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 11 | -3 | 7 |
18 | Sheffield WednesdaySheff Weds | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 9 | 14 | -5 | 7 |
19 | Luton TownLuton | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 11 | -5 | 7 |
20 | Stoke CityStoke | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 11 | -7 | 6 |
21 | Coventry CityCoventry | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 11 | -5 | 5 |
22 | Preston North EndPreston | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 12 | -8 | 5 |
23 | Portsmouth | 7 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 13 | -6 | 4 |
24 | Cardiff CityCardiff | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 17 | -15 | 1 |
> Championship Full Table |