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Championship | Gameweek 28
Jan 22, 2022 at 12.30pm UK
City Ground
Derby logo

Nott'm Forest
2 - 1
Derby

Grabban (48'), Johnson (82')
Grabban (35'), Samba (89')
FT(HT: 0-0)
Lawrence (88' pen.)
Thompson (31'), Stearman (51'), Buchanan (56'), Lawrence (89'), Byrne (90+6')
Morrison (90+6')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Championship clash between Nottingham Forest and Derby County, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

We said: Nottingham Forest 2-1 Derby County

Despite the difference in league positions, this should be regarded as 50-50 contest, and Derby will relish the chance to get one over their hosts. Nevertheless, we feel that Forest might just edge this contest, potentially by the odd goal in three. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nottingham Forest win with a probability of 41.11%. A win for Derby County had a probability of 30.31% and a draw had a probability of 28.6%.

The most likely scoreline for a Nottingham Forest win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.06%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.13%) and 2-0 (8.03%). The likeliest Derby County win was 0-1 (10.75%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.22%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Nottingham Forest in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Nottingham Forest.

Result
Nottingham ForestDrawDerby County
41.11%28.58%30.31%
Both teams to score 45.05%
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
38.85%61.15%
Over 3.5Under 3.5
18.9%81.1%
Nottingham Forest Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
70.75%29.25%
Over 1.5Under 1.5
34.79%65.2%
Derby County Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
63.67%36.32%
Over 1.5Under 1.5
26.89%73.11%
Score Analysis
    Nottingham Forest 41.11%
    Derby County 30.3%
    Draw 28.57%
Nottingham ForestDrawDerby County
1-0 @ 13.06%
2-1 @ 8.13%
2-0 @ 8.03%
3-1 @ 3.33%
3-0 @ 3.29%
3-2 @ 1.69%
4-1 @ 1.02%
4-0 @ 1.01%
Other @ 1.54%
Total : 41.11%
1-1 @ 13.22%
0-0 @ 10.62%
2-2 @ 4.12%
Other @ 0.62%
Total : 28.57%
0-1 @ 10.75%
1-2 @ 6.7%
0-2 @ 5.45%
1-3 @ 2.26%
0-3 @ 1.84%
2-3 @ 1.39%
Other @ 1.92%
Total : 30.3%

How you voted: Nott'm Forest vs Derby

Nottingham Forest
63.9%
Draw
5.6%
Derby County
30.6%
36
Head to Head
Aug 28, 2021 12.30pm
Gameweek 5
Derby
1-1
Nott'm Forest
Lawrence (11')
Jozwiak (39'), Morrison (68'), Byrne (80'), Sibley (83')
Johnson (82')
Garner (35')
Feb 26, 2021 7.45pm
Oct 23, 2020 7.45pm
Gameweek 7
Nott'm Forest
1-1
Derby
Taylor (64')
Christie (18'), Arter (90+3')
Waghorn (30')
Jul 4, 2020 12.30pm
Nov 9, 2019 12.30pm
rhs 2.0
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Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Sheffield UnitedSheff Utd1610422191232
2Sunderland1594225111431
3Burnley168621961330
4Leeds UnitedLeeds158522491529
5Middlesbrough1683529191027
6West Bromwich AlbionWest Brom166821811726
7Watford168262524126
8Millwall156541813523
9Blackburn RoversBlackburn156451917222
10Bristol City165742020022
11Derby CountyDerby165562020020
12Stoke CityStoke165561920-120
13Norwich CityNorwich164752524119
14Swansea CitySwansea155461110119
15Sheffield WednesdaySheff Weds165471826-819
16Luton TownLuton165381826-818
17Coventry CityCoventry164572223-117
18Oxford UnitedOxford Utd164571924-517
19Plymouth ArgylePlymouth164571728-1117
20Preston North EndPreston163761624-816
21Cardiff CityCardiff164481524-916
22Hull City163671621-515
23Portsmouth152671628-1212
24Queens Park RangersQPR161871326-1311


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