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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 38.31%. A win for Birmingham City had a probability of 32.22% and a draw had a probability of 29.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.22%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.61%) and 0-2 (7.5%). The likeliest Birmingham City win was 1-0 (11.83%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.42%). The actual scoreline of 0-4 was predicted with a 0.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Derby County would win this match.
Result | ||
Birmingham City | Draw | Derby County |
32.22% | 29.48% | 38.31% |
Both teams to score 43.24% |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
36.36% | 63.65% |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
17.07% | 82.93% |
Birmingham City Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
63.74% | 36.26% |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
26.96% | 73.04% |
Derby County Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
67.84% | 32.16% |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
31.35% | 68.65% |
Score Analysis |
Birmingham City | Draw | Derby County |
1-0 @ 11.83% 2-1 @ 6.81% 2-0 @ 6% 3-1 @ 2.3% 3-0 @ 2.03% 3-2 @ 1.31% Other @ 1.94% Total : 32.22% | 1-1 @ 13.42% 0-0 @ 11.66% 2-2 @ 3.86% Other @ 0.53% Total : 29.47% | 0-1 @ 13.22% 1-2 @ 7.61% 0-2 @ 7.5% 1-3 @ 2.88% 0-3 @ 2.84% 2-3 @ 1.46% Other @ 2.79% Total : 38.3% |
Team | P | W | D | L | PTS | |
Q | ![]() | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
Q | ![]() | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
3 | ![]() | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
4 | ![]() | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
Team | P | W | D | L | PTS | |
Q | ![]() | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
Q | ![]() | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
Q | ![]() | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
4 | ![]() | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 |