Spanish Super Cup holders Athletic Bilbao will be looking to reach their second successive final when they do battle with La Liga champions Atletico Madrid in their semi-final clash on Thursday night.
The winners at the King Fahd International Stadium in Saudi Arabia will face either Barcelona or Real Madrid in the final, which is due to take place on Sunday.
Match preview
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After cruising to a 5-0 victory over second-tier side Rayo Majadahonda in the Copa del Rey last week, Atletico Madrid were forced to settle for just a point in La Liga when they played out a 2-2 away at Villarreal on Sunday.
Strikes either side of half time from Villarreal defenders Pau Torres and Alberto Moreno cancelled out Angel Correa's brilliant 10th-minute opener from the halfway line; however, Geoffrey Kondogbia scored a 67th-minute equaliser for the visitors, before receiving his second yellow card of the game in added time.
This result was another setback for Diego Simeone's side in their quest to retain their top-flight title, with 16 points now separating themselves in fourth with league leaders and city rivals Real Madrid at the summit.
With the defence of their title seemingly all but over, Atletico may look to prioritise cup competitions for the remainder of this season, with the Spanish Super Cup their first attempt at silverware.
Los Colchoneros have a mixed record against Bilbao in recent meetings, as they have won, drawn and lost two games each in their last six encounters, including a goalless draw at the Wanda Metropolitano in September.
With a lack of home supporters to cheer them on at a neutral venue in Saudi Arabia, Simeone will need to be his exuberant self once again on the touchline to provide some sort of motivation for his players on Thursday.
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Similarly to Atletico Madrid, Athletic Bilbao followed up their Copa del Rey win over third-tier outfit Atletico Mancha Real by claiming just a point in La Liga, as they played out a goalless draw with Alaves on Sunday.
A frustrating result for head coach Marcelino means his side are now sitting four points behind the European places having played a game more than their rivals above them.
Bilbao are now to face a challenging run of fixtures across three different competitions, as their Super Cup tie with Atletico is followed by a Copa del Rey last-16 clash with Barcelona next Wednesday, before a La Liga trip to high-flying Rayo Vallecano just four days later.
Marcelino will be keen to begin this run of fixtures with a positive result in Saudi Arabia, and given that their fortunes have recently turned – winning three and drawing one of their last five matches prior to an eight-game winless run in all tournaments – the Spanish boss and his team will be confident of success on Thursday.
Bilbao, who managed to beat Atletico's rivals Real Madrid at this stage last season, will be looking to become the first team since Barcelona between 2009 and 2011 to retain the Super Cup.
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Team News
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Atletico Madrid will have to cope without star forward Antoine Griezmann, who is ruled out until February with a muscle injury.
Centre-back Stefan Savic is also sidelined with a similar injury; however, Luis Suarez and Jose Maria Gimenez are both back after serving one-match suspensions, and the pair are expected to return to the starting lineup at the expense of Matheus Cunha and Felipe.
Experienced midfielder Koke could return to the middle of the pitch ahead of Kondogbia, while Joao Felix may have to settle for a place on the bench once again after Correa's impressive performance in attack over the weekend.
As for Athletic Bilbao, Unai Nunez and Unai Vencedor have not been selected in Marcelino's 24-man squad as they are yet to have recovered from their respective injuries.
Vencedor was forced off in just the fourth minute against Alaves with a muscle injury and was replaced by Oier Zarraga, who will be in contention to start in central midfield alongside Dani Garcia.
Marcelino will have to decide whether Inaki Williams is joined in attack by youth or experience, as 21-year-old Oihan Sancet and 35-year-old Raul Garcia will be fighting for the same spot in the first XI.
Atletico Madrid possible starting lineup:
Oblak; Llorente, Gimenez, Hermoso, Lodi; Lemar, De Paul, Koke, Carrasco; Correa, Suarez
Athletic Bilbao possible starting lineup:
Simon; De Marcos, Alvarez, Martinez, Balenziaga; Berenguer, Zarraga, D. Garcia, Muniain; R. Garcia, I. Williams
We say: Atletico Madrid 1-1 Athletic Bilbao (Atletico Madrid to win 2-1 in extra-time)
A closely-fought contest between two evenly-matched sides, who could not be separated earlier this campaign, is set to be played out on Thursday with the tie potentially going beyond the 90 minutes.
The two teams will almost be at full strength in Saudi Arabia; however, the return of Suarez and Gimenez for Atletico Madrid may give them the slight edge to advance to the final.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Madrid win with a probability of 50.85%. A draw had a probability of 28% and a win for Athletic Bilbao had a probability of 21.16%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Madrid win was 1-0 with a probability of 16.18%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11%) and 2-1 (8.46%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.43%), while for an Athletic Bilbao win it was 0-1 (9.15%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 4.8% likelihood.
