We said: Fiorentina 3-1 Benevento
While the chances of an entertaining encounter are high, the probability of Benevento springing a surprise on their high-flying hosts is less so.
Fiorentina boast a buoyant squad, with several fringe players ready to step in and impress, so should take the direct route through to the next round.
Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fiorentina win with a probability of 50.26%. A win for Benevento had a probability of 25.52% and a draw had a probability of 24.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Fiorentina win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.21%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.6%) and 2-0 (8.55%). The likeliest Benevento win was 0-1 (6.85%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.46%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Fiorentina would win this match.
