A new month begins with renewed hope for Bragantino, who have an opportunity to potentially move into second in the Campeonato Brasileiro Serie A standings with a win against Cuiaba on Monday at Arena Pantanal.
Dourado failed to hang onto their lead against Atletico Mineiro, losing 2-1 last weekend, while Braga are tied with Palmeiras for second with 49 points after handling Sport Recife 3-0 on Thursday.
Match preview
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By no means are Cuiaba the most exciting team to watch in the Brazilian top flight, but sometimes in football, to be successful, you have to find the right formation and tactics which can enable your side to earn points, and Jorginho has been able to do that more often than not with this group.
They had a dream start versus the league leaders in their previous match, going ahead after two minutes through an own goal by Nathan Silva, but that only lasted for two minutes before order was restored through Hulk, and then Jair put the visitors behind for good in stoppage time in the first half.
Despite firing nine shots on target, Mineiro got a first-hand look at how far this club from Mato Grosso have come in their inaugural campaign in Serie A, as Cuiaba did not allow their opponents into a lot of dangerous scoring areas.
In what will be their first home match in the league since the middle of October, Dourado head into this fixture with consecutive shutouts at Arena Pantanal, conceding only five shots on target combined in both of those encounters.
This team have been exceptionally sharp in the second half of the domestic league campaign when battling the top teams, holding Flamengo and Palmeiras scoreless, two of the most dangerous offensive units in Serie A.
Against Bragantino in early July, they had more possession than usual (46%), managing to come away with a 1-1 draw in a match where they once again showed how well drilled they are defensively, conceding just a single shot on target.
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Massa Bruta begin November full of confidence, unbeaten in their last eight top flight fixtures as they are right back in a solid position to claim a spot in the group stage of the Copa Libertadores next year.
Shutting down this dynamic side led by Mauricio Barbieri is a tall order for any team, and very few have been able to do it for 90 minutes as Braga have scored at least a goal in 18 consecutive games in all competitions dating back to August.
Their next big challenge will be to sharpen up defensively on the road, where they have failed to keep a clean sheet since August 23 when they blanked America Mineiro 2-0.
They come into this match posting consecutive shutouts at home in league play, which should boost their morale at the back as they get set to face another side who like to catch you on the break.
Braga are likely to be surrounded by numerous Dourado players throughout this game as Cuiaba have been incredibly committed to team defence all year long, and they like to defend in numbers.
At the moment, Bragantino trail Atletico Mineiro by 10 points, but if you look at their schedule down the stretch, it is pretty favourable given that only three of their remaining 10 league matches are against sides in the top half of the league standings.
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Team News
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Jenison scored the equaliser the last time Cuiaba faced Bragantino, cancelling out the opening goal from Bruno Praxedes thanks to an excellent assist from Felipe Marques, his only one of the campaign thus far.
Lucas Ramon will be eager to draw back into the lineup as the 27-year-old Dourado right-back is out on loan from Braga for the remainder of this season, and he has yet to score in his career in the top flight of Brazilian football.
Ramon was one of several changes to the starting 11 versus Galo as Joao Lucas took his place at the back last Sunday, Rafael Gava replaced Pepe in midfield and Max started at forward instead of Felipe Marques.
Ytalo picked up his team-leading 10th goal of the year for Bragantino, three minutes into their contest with Recife, putting him two ahead of Artur, who leads them in assists, collecting his eighth on the third goal of the year from Tomas Cuello.
Cleiton has stopped the last nine shots fired at him, posting back-to-back clean sheets, moving him into a tie with Richard at nine in the top flight so far this year and one behind Cuiaba goalkeeper Walter.
In their fixture earlier this week, Aderlan started at the back rather than Weverton, Edimar replaced Luan Candido, Tomas Cuello began the game instead of Helinho, while Gabriel Novaes and Ytalo were the two strikers, replacing Pedrinho and Jan Hurtado.
Cuiaba possible starting lineup:
Walter; Uendel, Empereur, Paulao, Ramon; Clayson, Gava, Yuri, Correia; Elton, Cafu
Bragantino possible starting lineup:
Cleiton; Weverton, Bruno, Ortiz, Edimar; Artur, Martinez, Hurtado, Cuello; Pedrinho, Ytalo
We say: Cuiaba 0-1 Bragantino
In all likelihood, Cuiaba will look to hang back and frustrate Braga, allowing them a lot of the ball, but with the scoring depth of Massa Bruta and a much-improved backline, they should be able to find a solution eventually, while you would think that their defence will have a renewed confidence given how stingy they have been in recent memory.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bragantino win with a probability of 39.91%. A win for Cuiaba had a probability of 31.77% and a draw had a probability of 28.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bragantino win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.42%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.11%) and 0-2 (7.63%). The likeliest Cuiaba win was 1-0 (10.75%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.2%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 10.8% likelihood.
