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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AZ Alkmaar win with a probability of 78.64%. A draw had a probability of 13.7% and a win for Heracles had a probability of 7.7%.
The most likely scoreline for an AZ Alkmaar win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.79%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (10.57%) and 1-0 (8.77%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.44%), while for a Heracles win it was 0-1 (2.39%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 8.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that AZ Alkmaar would win this match.
Result | ||
AZ Alkmaar | Draw | Heracles |
78.64% ( 0.18) | 13.66% ( -0.1) | 7.7% ( -0.08) |
Both teams to score 48.45% ( -0.01) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
66.47% ( 0.2) | 33.53% ( -0.2) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
44.66% ( 0.23) | 55.33% ( -0.23) |
AZ Alkmaar Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
93.21% ( 0.08) | 6.79% ( -0.08) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
74.94% ( 0.21) | 25.06% ( -0.21) |
Heracles Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
51.99% ( -0.06) | 48.01% ( 0.05) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
16.76% ( -0.04) | 83.24% ( 0.04) |
Score Analysis |
AZ Alkmaar | Draw | Heracles |
2-0 @ 11.79% ( -0.02) 3-0 @ 10.57% ( 0.03) 1-0 @ 8.77% ( -0.05) 2-1 @ 8.65% ( -0.03) 3-1 @ 7.76% ( 0.01) 4-0 @ 7.11% ( 0.05) 4-1 @ 5.22% ( 0.03) 5-0 @ 3.82% ( 0.04) 3-2 @ 2.85% ( -0) 5-1 @ 2.81% ( 0.03) 4-2 @ 1.91% ( 0.01) 6-0 @ 1.71% ( 0.03) 6-1 @ 1.26% ( 0.02) 5-2 @ 1.03% ( 0.01) Other @ 3.38% Total : 78.63% | 1-1 @ 6.44% ( -0.05) 0-0 @ 3.26% ( -0.03) 2-2 @ 3.17% ( -0.02) Other @ 0.79% Total : 13.66% | 0-1 @ 2.39% ( -0.03) 1-2 @ 2.36% ( -0.02) Other @ 2.95% Total : 7.7% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | PSV EindhovenPSV | 17 | 15 | 0 | 2 | 59 | 13 | 46 | 45 |
2 | Ajax | 17 | 12 | 3 | 2 | 37 | 16 | 21 | 39 |
3 | FC UtrechtUtrecht | 17 | 11 | 3 | 3 | 34 | 28 | 6 | 36 |
4 | Feyenoord | 17 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 40 | 21 | 19 | 35 |
5 | AZ AlkmaarAZ | 17 | 10 | 2 | 5 | 31 | 17 | 14 | 32 |
6 | FC Twente | 17 | 9 | 4 | 4 | 32 | 21 | 11 | 31 |
7 | Go Ahead Eagles | 17 | 7 | 4 | 6 | 30 | 27 | 3 | 25 |
8 | Fortuna SittardSittard | 17 | 7 | 4 | 6 | 25 | 25 | 0 | 25 |
9 | Willem II | 17 | 6 | 4 | 7 | 21 | 19 | 2 | 22 |
10 | NAC BredaNAC Breda | 17 | 7 | 1 | 9 | 19 | 27 | -8 | 22 |
11 | Heerenveen | 17 | 6 | 3 | 8 | 17 | 31 | -14 | 21 |
12 | NECNijmegen | 17 | 5 | 2 | 10 | 23 | 24 | -1 | 17 |
13 | PEC Zwolle | 17 | 4 | 5 | 8 | 16 | 26 | -10 | 17 |
14 | Groningen | 16 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 14 | 26 | -12 | 16 |
15 | Heracles | 16 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 18 | 33 | -15 | 14 |
16 | Sparta RotterdamSparta | 17 | 2 | 6 | 9 | 14 | 26 | -12 | 12 |
17 | Almere CityAlmere City | 17 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 10 | 37 | -27 | 9 |
18 | RKC WaalwijkRKC Waalwijk | 17 | 1 | 4 | 12 | 18 | 41 | -23 | 7 |
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