Euro 2024

Euro Champ Qualifying | Group Stage

Oct 17, 2023 at 7.45pm UK

Stadion Rajko Mitic

Serbia
3 - 1
Montenegro

Mitrovic (9', 74'), Tadic (77')
Gudelj (49')

FT(HT: 1-1)

Jovetic (36')
Savic (58'), Jovovic (88'), Tomasevic (89')

Preview

Data Analysis

Lineups

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's Euro 2024 qualifying clash between Serbia and Montenegro, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Serbia

All competitions

Euro Champ Qualifying

Last Game: Hungary 2-1 Serbia
Saturday, October 14 at 7.45pm in Euro Champ Qualifying

Current Group G Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Hungary	5	7	13
2	Serbia	6	4	10
3	Montenegro	5	0	8
4	Lithuania	6	-4	5
5	Bulgaria	6	-7	2

Montenegro

All competitions

Euro Champ Qualifying

Last Game: Montenegro 3-2 Lebanon
Thursday, October 12 at 5pm in International Friendlies

Current Group G Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Hungary	5	7	13
2	Serbia	6	4	10
3	Montenegro	5	0	8
4	Lithuania	6	-4	5
5	Bulgaria	6	-7	2

We said: Serbia 2-1 Montenegro

A loss to Hungary means Serbia can no longer afford to drop points if they want to qualify for Euro 2024 next summer. Montenegro have been solid defensively so far in qualifying and could make life difficult for the likes of Aleksandar Mitrovic and Tadic, but at the end of the day they should have too much offensive talent for the visitors to handle. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Serbia win with a probability of 50.91%. A draw had a probability of 25.7% and a win for Montenegro had a probability of 23.4%.

The most likely scoreline for a Serbia win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.77%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.81%) and 2-1 (9.33%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.14%), while for a Montenegro win it was 0-1 (7.91%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Serbia would win this match.

Result
Serbia	Draw	Montenegro
50.91% ( -0.81)	25.69% ( 0.16)	23.4% ( 0.65)

Both teams to score 48.16% (

0.26)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

45.29% (

-0.03)

54.71% (

0.03)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

23.97% (

-0.03)

76.04% (

0.03)

Serbia Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

78.47% (

-0.35)

21.53% (

0.36)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

45.41% (

-0.55)

54.59% (

0.55)

Montenegro Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

61.38% (

0.61)

38.63% (

-0.6)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

24.63% (

0.57)

75.37% (

-0.57)

Score Analysis

Serbia 50.91%

Montenegro 23.4%

Draw 25.68%

Serbia	Draw	Montenegro
1-0 @ 12.77% ( -0.12) 2-0 @ 9.81% ( -0.19) 2-1 @ 9.33% ( -0.04) 3-0 @ 5.02% ( -0.16) 3-1 @ 4.78% ( -0.07) 3-2 @ 2.27% ( 0) 4-0 @ 1.93% ( -0.08) 4-1 @ 1.83% ( -0.05) Other @ 3.17% Total : 50.91%	1-1 @ 12.14% ( 0.08) 0-0 @ 8.32% ( 0.01) 2-2 @ 4.44% ( 0.06) Other @ 0.79% Total : 25.68%	0-1 @ 7.91% ( 0.14) 1-2 @ 5.78% ( 0.13) 0-2 @ 3.76% ( 0.13) 1-3 @ 1.83% ( 0.07) 2-3 @ 1.41% ( 0.04) 0-3 @ 1.19% ( 0.06) Other @ 1.52% Total : 23.4%