FA Cup

FA Cup | First Round Replays

Nov 15, 2022 at 7.45pm UK

Pride Park Stadium

Derby
5 - 0
Torquay Utd

Ellis (7' og.), Osula (15'), Thompson (38'), Dobbin (62'), McGoldrick (79')
Collins (82')

FT(HT: 3-0)

Ness (70'), Lapslie (90+1')

Preview

Data Analysis

Lineups

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's FA Cup clash between Derby County and Torquay United, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Derby County

All competitions

FA Cup

Last Game: MK Dons 1-3 Derby
Saturday, November 12 at 3pm in League One

Goals
for

Top scorers

Torquay United

All competitions

FA Cup

Last Game: Torquay Utd 1-5 Chesterfield
Saturday, November 12 at 3pm in National League

Goals
for

We said: Derby County 2-0 Torquay United

Torquay impressed when the two sides locked horns last time out, but we are finding it really difficult to predict a shock result in this match. Derby will be determined to avoid another uncomfortable affair, and we are expecting this to be a relatively straightforward contest for the League One side. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 76.09%. A draw had a probability of 15% and a win for Torquay United had a probability of 8.93%.

The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.82%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (10.07%) and 1-0 (9.26%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.06%), while for a Torquay United win it was 0-1 (2.76%). The actual scoreline of 5-0 was predicted with a 3.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Derby County would win this match.

Result
Derby County	Draw	Torquay United
76.09% ( 0.04)	14.97% ( -0.02)	8.93% ( -0.02)

Both teams to score 49.22% (

-0)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

64.41% (

0.04)

35.59% (

-0.04)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

42.35% (

0.04)

57.64% (

-0.04)

Derby County Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

92.22% (

0.01)

7.77% (

-0.02)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

72.37% (

0.04)

27.62% (

-0.05)

Torquay United Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

53.36% (

-0.02)

46.63% (

0.01)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

17.79% (

-0.01)

82.2% (

0.01)

Score Analysis

Derby County 76.08%

Torquay United 8.93%

Draw 14.97%

Derby County	Draw	Torquay United
2-0 @ 11.82% 3-0 @ 10.07% ( 0.01) 1-0 @ 9.26% ( -0.01) 2-1 @ 9.02% ( -0) 3-1 @ 7.68% ( 0) 4-0 @ 6.43% ( 0.01) 4-1 @ 4.91% ( 0.01) 5-0 @ 3.29% ( 0.01) 3-2 @ 2.93% 5-1 @ 2.51% ( 0.01) 4-2 @ 1.87% ( 0) 6-0 @ 1.4% ( 0) 6-1 @ 1.07% ( 0) 5-2 @ 0.96% ( 0) Other @ 2.87% Total : 76.08%	1-1 @ 7.06% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 3.62% ( -0.01) 2-2 @ 3.44% ( -0) Other @ 0.84% Total : 14.97%	0-1 @ 2.76% ( -0.01) 1-2 @ 2.69% ( -0) 0-2 @ 1.05% ( -0) Other @ 2.42% Total : 8.93%