FA Cup

FA Cup | Third Round Replays

Jan 17, 2023 at 7.45pm UK

The DW Stadium

Wigan
1 - 2
Luton

Aasgaard (46')
Power (45+2'), Whatmough (56'), Tilt (79'), Hughes (90+7')

FT(HT: 0-0)

Woodrow (51'), Adebayo (90+8')
Burke (89')

Preview

Data Analysis

Lineups

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's FA Cup clash between Wigan Athletic and Luton Town, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Wigan Athletic

All competitions

FA Cup

Last Game: Cardiff 1-1 Wigan
Saturday, January 14 at 3pm in Championship

Goals
for

Top scorers

Luton Town

All competitions

FA Cup

Last Game: Luton 2-3 West Brom
Saturday, January 14 at 3pm in Championship

Goals
for

Top scorers

We said: Wigan Athletic 0-1 Luton Town

This is a difficult match to call, but Luton will fancy their chances of progressing to the fourth round of the competition. Wigan managed to end a four-game losing run in the league by drawing with Cardiff on Saturday, but we believe that Luton will be able to navigate their way to a narrow win here. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Luton Town win with a probability of 46.2%. A win for Wigan Athletic had a probability of 27.58% and a draw had a probability of 26.2%.

The most likely scoreline for a Luton Town win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.68%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.09%) and 0-2 (8.53%). The likeliest Wigan Athletic win was 1-0 (8.52%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.44%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Luton Town would win this match.

Result
Wigan Athletic	Draw	Luton Town
27.58% ( 0.19)	26.21% ( -0.43)	46.2% ( 0.24)

Both teams to score 50.32% (

1.41)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

46.27% (

1.76)

53.73% (

-1.76)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

24.79% (

1.46)

75.21% (

-1.46)

Wigan Athletic Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

65.53% (

1.09)

34.46% (

-1.1)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

28.82% (

1.15)

71.18% (

-1.15)

Luton Town Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

76.78% (

0.88)

23.21% (

-0.88)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

42.88% (

1.27)

57.12% (

-1.27)

Score Analysis

Wigan Athletic 27.58%

Luton Town 46.2%

Draw 26.21%

Wigan Athletic	Draw	Luton Town
1-0 @ 8.52% ( -0.34) 2-1 @ 6.63% ( 0.11) 2-0 @ 4.54% ( -0.04) 3-1 @ 2.35% ( 0.11) 3-2 @ 1.72% ( 0.12) 3-0 @ 1.61% ( 0.03) Other @ 2.2% Total : 27.58%	1-1 @ 12.44% ( -0.16) 0-0 @ 8% ( -0.57) 2-2 @ 4.84% ( 0.2) Other @ 0.92% Total : 26.21%	0-1 @ 11.68% ( -0.51) 1-2 @ 9.09% ( 0.12) 0-2 @ 8.53% ( -0.15) 1-3 @ 4.42% ( 0.17) 0-3 @ 4.15% ( 0.04) 2-3 @ 2.36% ( 0.16) 1-4 @ 1.62% ( 0.1) 0-4 @ 1.52% ( 0.05) Other @ 2.84% Total : 46.2%