Northern Ireland are certainly capable of making this a tricky match for Spain, which is what La Roja will want in their final game before Euro 2024. The hosts will be able to call upon greater quality all across the pitch, though, and we are expecting them to have too much for their opponents on Saturday. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Spain win with a probability of 82.76%. A draw had a probability of 11.6% and a win for Northern Ireland had a probability of 5.6%.

The most likely scoreline for a Spain win was 2-0 with a probability of 12.46%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (11.85%) and 1-0 (8.73%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (5.52%), while for a Northern Ireland win it was 0-1 (1.94%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 3.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Spain would win this match.

Result
Spain	Draw	Northern Ireland
82.76% ( 0)	11.64% ( 0.02)	5.6% ( -0.02)

Both teams to score 44.19% (

-0.25)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

67.68% (

-0.22)

32.32% (

0.22)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

46.06% (

-0.26)

53.94% (

0.26)

Spain Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

94.24% (

-0.04)

5.76% (

0.04)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

77.8% (

-0.12)

22.19% (

0.12)

Northern Ireland Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

46.88% (

-0.24)

53.11% (

0.24)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

13.28% (

-0.15)

86.72% (

0.15)

Score Analysis

Spain 82.75%

Northern Ireland 5.6%

Draw 11.64%

Spain	Draw	Northern Ireland
2-0 @ 12.46% ( 0.09) 3-0 @ 11.85% ( 0.05) 1-0 @ 8.73% ( 0.08) 4-0 @ 8.46% ( 0.02) 2-1 @ 7.89% ( -0) 3-1 @ 7.5% ( -0.02) 4-1 @ 5.35% ( -0.03) 5-0 @ 4.83% ( -0) 5-1 @ 3.06% ( -0.02) 3-2 @ 2.37% ( -0.02) 6-0 @ 2.3% ( -0.01) 4-2 @ 1.69% ( -0.02) 6-1 @ 1.45% ( -0.02) 5-2 @ 0.97% ( -0.02) 7-0 @ 0.94% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.9% Total : 82.75%	1-1 @ 5.52% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 3.06% ( 0.04) 2-2 @ 2.5% ( -0.02) Other @ 0.56% Total : 11.64%	0-1 @ 1.94% ( 0.01) 1-2 @ 1.75% ( -0.01) Other @ 1.92% Total : 5.6%