Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Madrid win with a probability of 58.74%. A draw had a probability of 24% and a win for Leganes had a probability of 17.25%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Madrid win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.32%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.01%) and 2-1 (9.41%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.21%), while for a Leganes win it was 0-1 (6.68%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Atletico Madrid would win this match.
Result | ||
Atletico Madrid | Draw | Leganes |
58.74% ( -0.18) | 24.01% ( 0.02) | 17.25% ( 0.16) |
Both teams to score 44.15% ( 0.22) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
44.62% ( 0.14) | 55.38% ( -0.14) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
23.42% ( 0.11) | 76.58% ( -0.11) |
Atletico Madrid Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
81.33% ( -0.02) | 18.67% ( 0.02) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
50% ( -0.03) | 50% ( 0.03) |
Leganes Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
54.29% ( 0.28) | 45.71% ( -0.28) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
18.5% ( 0.22) | 81.49% ( -0.22) |
Score Analysis |
Atletico Madrid | Draw | Leganes |
1-0 @ 14.32% ( -0.08) 2-0 @ 12.01% ( -0.08) 2-1 @ 9.41% ( 0.02) 3-0 @ 6.72% ( -0.05) 3-1 @ 5.26% ( 0) 4-0 @ 2.82% ( -0.02) 4-1 @ 2.21% ( 0) 3-2 @ 2.06% ( 0.02) 5-0 @ 0.95% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.97% Total : 58.73% | 1-1 @ 11.21% ( 0.03) 0-0 @ 8.53% ( -0.04) 2-2 @ 3.68% ( 0.03) Other @ 0.58% Total : 24.01% | 0-1 @ 6.68% ( 0.02) 1-2 @ 4.39% ( 0.04) 0-2 @ 2.62% ( 0.03) 1-3 @ 1.15% ( 0.02) 2-3 @ 0.96% ( 0.02) Other @ 1.46% Total : 17.25% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Atletico MadridAtletico | 18 | 12 | 5 | 1 | 33 | 12 | 21 | 41 |
2 | Real Madrid | 18 | 12 | 4 | 2 | 41 | 18 | 23 | 40 |
3 | Barcelona | 19 | 12 | 2 | 5 | 51 | 22 | 29 | 38 |
4 | Athletic Bilbao | 19 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 29 | 17 | 12 | 36 |
5 | Villarreal | 18 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 34 | 30 | 4 | 30 |
6 | Mallorca | 19 | 9 | 3 | 7 | 19 | 21 | -2 | 30 |
7 | Real Sociedad | 18 | 7 | 4 | 7 | 16 | 13 | 3 | 25 |
8 | GironaGirona | 18 | 7 | 4 | 7 | 26 | 25 | 1 | 25 |
9 | Real BetisBetis | 18 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 21 | 22 | -1 | 25 |
10 | Osasuna | 18 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 23 | 27 | -4 | 25 |
11 | Celta Vigo | 18 | 7 | 3 | 8 | 27 | 28 | -1 | 24 |
12 | Rayo Vallecano | 18 | 5 | 7 | 6 | 20 | 21 | -1 | 22 |
13 | Las PalmasLas Palmas | 18 | 6 | 4 | 8 | 23 | 27 | -4 | 22 |
14 | Sevilla | 18 | 6 | 4 | 8 | 20 | 27 | -7 | 22 |
15 | Leganes | 18 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 17 | 28 | -11 | 18 |
16 | AlavesAlaves | 18 | 4 | 5 | 9 | 21 | 30 | -9 | 17 |
17 | Getafe | 18 | 3 | 7 | 8 | 11 | 15 | -4 | 16 |
18 | Espanyol | 18 | 4 | 3 | 11 | 16 | 30 | -14 | 15 |
19 | Valencia | 17 | 2 | 6 | 9 | 16 | 26 | -10 | 12 |
20 | Real ValladolidValladolid | 18 | 3 | 3 | 12 | 12 | 37 | -25 | 12 |
> La Liga Full Table |