Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Madrid win with a probability of 65.46%. A draw had a probability of 20.9% and a win for Valencia had a probability of 13.68%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Madrid win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.07%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.72%) and 2-1 (9.6%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.86%), while for a Valencia win it was 0-1 (5.07%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with an 8.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Atletico Madrid would win this match.
Result | ||
Atletico Madrid | Draw | Valencia |
65.46% ( -0.15) | 20.85% ( 0.05) | 13.68% ( 0.09) |
Both teams to score 45.4% ( 0.06) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
50.63% ( -0.05) | 49.36% ( 0.05) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
28.58% ( -0.04) | 71.41% ( 0.04) |
Atletico Madrid Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
85.7% ( -0.06) | 14.29% ( 0.06) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
57.9% ( -0.12) | 42.09% ( 0.12) |
Valencia Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
52.97% ( 0.11) | 47.03% ( -0.11) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
17.49% ( 0.08) | 82.51% ( -0.08) |
Score Analysis |
Atletico Madrid | Draw | Valencia |
1-0 @ 13.07% 2-0 @ 12.72% ( -0.03) 2-1 @ 9.6% ( 0.01) 3-0 @ 8.25% ( -0.04) 3-1 @ 6.22% ( -0.01) 4-0 @ 4.01% ( -0.03) 4-1 @ 3.03% ( -0.01) 3-2 @ 2.35% ( 0) 5-0 @ 1.56% ( -0.01) 5-1 @ 1.18% ( -0.01) 4-2 @ 1.14% Other @ 2.33% Total : 65.45% | 1-1 @ 9.86% ( 0.03) 0-0 @ 6.72% ( 0.01) 2-2 @ 3.62% ( 0.01) Other @ 0.65% Total : 20.85% | 0-1 @ 5.07% ( 0.03) 1-2 @ 3.72% ( 0.02) 0-2 @ 1.91% ( 0.01) 1-3 @ 0.94% ( 0.01) 2-3 @ 0.91% ( 0.01) Other @ 1.13% Total : 13.68% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Barcelona | 9 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 28 | 9 | 19 | 24 |
2 | Real Madrid | 9 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 19 | 6 | 13 | 21 |
3 | Villarreal | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 17 | 17 | 0 | 17 |
4 | Atletico MadridAtletico | 8 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 12 | 4 | 8 | 16 |
5 | Osasuna | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 13 | 14 | -1 | 15 |
6 | Athletic Bilbao | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 13 | 10 | 3 | 14 |
7 | Mallorca | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 8 | 1 | 14 |
8 | Rayo Vallecano | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 11 | 9 | 2 | 13 |
9 | Celta Vigo | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 16 | 15 | 1 | 13 |
10 | Real BetisBetis | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 7 | 1 | 12 |
11 | GironaGirona | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 11 | 12 | -1 | 12 |
12 | AlavesAlaves | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 11 | 15 | -4 | 10 |
13 | Espanyol | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 9 | 13 | -4 | 10 |
14 | Sevilla | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 10 | -2 | 9 |
15 | Real Sociedad | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 8 |
16 | Getafe | 9 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 8 |
17 | Leganes | 9 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 8 |
18 | Valencia | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 13 | -8 | 6 |
19 | Real ValladolidValladolid | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 5 | 19 | -14 | 5 |
20 | Las PalmasLas Palmas | 9 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 9 | 17 | -8 | 3 |
> La Liga Full Table |