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La Liga | Gameweek 5
Sep 15, 2024 at 8pm UK
Estadio Civitas Metropolitano
Valencia logo

Atletico
3 - 0
Valencia

Gallagher (39'), Griezmann (54'), Alvarez (90+4')
Koke (25')
FT(HT: 1-0)

Tarrega (10'), Guillamon (32')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's La Liga clash between Atletico Madrid and Valencia, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Valencia 1-1 Villarreal
Saturday, August 31 at 8.30pm in La Liga

We said: Atletico Madrid 2-0 Valencia

Atletico are a tough team to beat at the Metropolitano, and with Valencia low on confidence following three defeats in four games, we think that Atleti will ultimately do enough to add three more points to their tally and maintain their unbeaten start to the new season. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Madrid win with a probability of 65.46%. A draw had a probability of 20.9% and a win for Valencia had a probability of 13.68%.

The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Madrid win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.07%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.72%) and 2-1 (9.6%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.86%), while for a Valencia win it was 0-1 (5.07%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with an 8.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Atletico Madrid would win this match.

Result
Atletico MadridDrawValencia
65.46% (-0.146 -0.15) 20.85% (0.055 0.05) 13.68% (0.092000000000001 0.09)
Both teams to score 45.4% (0.063000000000002 0.06)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
50.63% (-0.045000000000002 -0.05)49.36% (0.045999999999999 0.05)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
28.58% (-0.039999999999999 -0.04)71.41% (0.040999999999997 0.04)
Atletico Madrid Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
85.7% (-0.060999999999993 -0.06)14.29% (0.061 0.06)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
57.9% (-0.118 -0.12)42.09% (0.119 0.12)
Valencia Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
52.97% (0.111 0.11)47.03% (-0.11 -0.11)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
17.49% (0.082999999999998 0.08)82.51% (-0.082999999999998 -0.08)
Score Analysis
    Atletico Madrid 65.45%
    Valencia 13.68%
    Draw 20.85%
Atletico MadridDrawValencia
1-0 @ 13.07%
2-0 @ 12.72% (-0.029999999999999 -0.03)
2-1 @ 9.6% (0.0060000000000002 0.01)
3-0 @ 8.25% (-0.038 -0.04)
3-1 @ 6.22% (-0.0090000000000003 -0.01)
4-0 @ 4.01% (-0.027 -0.03)
4-1 @ 3.03% (-0.011 -0.01)
3-2 @ 2.35% (0.0030000000000001 0)
5-0 @ 1.56% (-0.014 -0.01)
5-1 @ 1.18% (-0.0070000000000001 -0.01)
4-2 @ 1.14%
Other @ 2.33%
Total : 65.45%
1-1 @ 9.86% (0.027000000000001 0.03)
0-0 @ 6.72% (0.013 0.01)
2-2 @ 3.62% (0.013 0.01)
Other @ 0.65%
Total : 20.85%
0-1 @ 5.07% (0.025 0.03)
1-2 @ 3.72% (0.022 0.02)
0-2 @ 1.91% (0.015 0.01)
1-3 @ 0.94% (0.009 0.01)
2-3 @ 0.91% (0.006 0.01)
Other @ 1.13%
Total : 13.68%

How you voted: Atletico vs Valencia

Atletico Madrid
90.5%
Draw
5.7%
Valencia
3.8%
105
Head to Head
Jan 28, 2024 8pm
Gameweek 22
Atletico
2-0
Valencia
Lino (45+5'), Depay (57')
Molina (49'), Niguez (83')
Sep 16, 2023 3.15pm
Gameweek 5
Valencia
3-0
Atletico
Duro (5', 34'), Guerra (54')
Mamardashvili (56')

Hermoso (23'), Llorente (36'), Griezmann (37'), Niguez (74'), Barrios (86')
Mar 18, 2023 8pm
Gameweek 26
Atletico
3-0
Valencia
Griezmann (23'), Carrasco (49'), Lemar (67')
Aug 29, 2022 9pm
Gameweek 3
Valencia
0-1
Atletico

Maranhao (18'), Gattuso (26'), Correia (42'), Comert (76'), Perez (83')
Griezmann (66')
Niguez (14'), Simeone (26'), Mandava (27'), Felix (55')
Jan 22, 2022 8pm
Gameweek 22
Atletico
3-2
Valencia
Cunha (64'), Correa (90+1'), Hermoso (90+3')
Koke (27'), Hermoso (37'), Suarez (82'), Herrera (84'), Gimenez (90+3')
Musah (25'), Duro (44')
Correia (14'), Foulquier (37'), Musah (43'), Guillamon (61'), Lato (65'), Domenech (83')
rhs 2.0
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Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Barcelona98012891924
2Real Madrid96301961321
3Villarreal95221717017
4Atletico MadridAtletico8440124816
5Osasuna94321314-115
6Athletic Bilbao94231310314
7Mallorca942398114
8Rayo Vallecano9342119213
9Celta Vigo94141615113
10Real BetisBetis833287112
11GironaGirona93331112-112
12AlavesAlaves93151115-410
13Espanyol9315913-410
14Sevilla8233810-29
15Real Sociedad822467-18
16Getafe915367-18
17Leganes915359-48
18Valencia9135513-86
19Real ValladolidValladolid9126519-145
20Las PalmasLas Palmas9036917-83


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