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League One | Gameweek 45
Apr 20, 2024 at 3pm UK
University of Bolton Stadium
Port Vale

Bolton
2 - 0
Port Vale

Collins (72'), Jerome (90+3')
Maghoma (70'), Charles (70'), Toal (79')
FT(HT: 0-0)

Garrity (70')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's League One clash between Bolton Wanderers and Port Vale, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Bolton Wanderers

All competitions
Last Game: Bolton 2-2 Shrewsbury
Tuesday, April 16 at 7.45pm in League One

Port Vale

All competitions
Last Game: Port Vale 1-2 Wycombe
Tuesday, April 16 at 7.45pm in League One

We said: Bolton Wanderers 2-0 Port Vale

 Bolton head into this game as the clear favourites, boasting more than double Port Vale's points tally this season. The hosts have not lost in this fixture since a 6-3 defeat in December 2020, and we expect them to continue that unbeaten run with a victory here, in a must-win match for both sides. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bolton Wanderers win with a probability of 73.65%. A draw had a probability of 16% and a win for Port Vale had a probability of 10.35%.

The most likely scoreline for a Bolton Wanderers win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.33%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (9.37%) and 2-1 (9.3%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.51%), while for a Port Vale win it was 1-2 (3.08%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with an 11.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted a 2-0 win for Bolton Wanderers in this match.

Result
Bolton WanderersDrawPort Vale
73.65% (0.036000000000001 0.04) 16% (-0.017999999999999 -0.02) 10.35% (-0.016999999999999 -0.02)
Both teams to score 51.29% (0.0069999999999979 0.01)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
64.05% (0.039000000000001 0.04)35.95% (-0.038000000000004 -0.04)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
41.96% (0.044000000000004 0.04)58.04% (-0.042999999999999 -0.04)
Bolton Wanderers Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
91.62% (0.018000000000001 0.02)8.38% (-0.016999999999999 -0.02)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
70.84% (0.043999999999997 0.04)29.16% (-0.041999999999998 -0.04)
Port Vale Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
55.99% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)44.01% (0.0049999999999955 0)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
19.87% (-0.0040000000000013 -0)80.13% (0.0060000000000002 0.01)
Score Analysis
    Bolton Wanderers 73.64%
    Port Vale 10.35%
    Draw 16%
Bolton WanderersDrawPort Vale
2-0 @ 11.33%
3-0 @ 9.37% (0.0050000000000008 0.01)
2-1 @ 9.3% (-0.0039999999999996 -0)
1-0 @ 9.15% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
3-1 @ 7.69% (0.0030000000000001 0)
4-0 @ 5.81% (0.008 0.01)
4-1 @ 4.77% (0.0059999999999993 0.01)
3-2 @ 3.16% (0.00099999999999989 0)
5-0 @ 2.88% (0.0070000000000001 0.01)
5-1 @ 2.36% (0.0049999999999999 0)
4-2 @ 1.96% (0.002 0)
6-0 @ 1.19% (0.0030000000000001 0)
6-1 @ 0.98% (0.003 0)
5-2 @ 0.97% (0.002 0)
Other @ 2.75%
Total : 73.64%
1-1 @ 7.51% (-0.0089999999999995 -0.01)
2-2 @ 3.82% (-0.0019999999999998 -0)
0-0 @ 3.69% (-0.0070000000000001 -0.01)
Other @ 0.98%
Total : 16%
1-2 @ 3.08% (-0.0049999999999999 -0)
0-1 @ 3.03% (-0.0059999999999998 -0.01)
0-2 @ 1.24% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
2-3 @ 1.05%
Other @ 1.96%
Total : 10.35%

How you voted: Bolton vs Port Vale

Bolton Wanderers
80.0%
Draw
0.0%
Port Vale
20.0%
15
Head to Head
Dec 5, 2023 7.45pm
Second Round
Bolton
2-0
Port Vale
Charles (9'), Mendes Gomes (64')
Thomason (60')

Iacovitti (57')
Sep 30, 2023 3pm
Gameweek 10
Port Vale
0-1
Bolton

Iacovitti (3'), Balmer (45+1')
Charles (43')
Iredale (64'), Morley (68'), Sheehan (76')
Feb 25, 2023 3pm
Gameweek 34
Bolton
2-1
Port Vale
Adeboyejo (18'), Sheehan (26')
Harrison (8')
Aug 13, 2022 3pm
Gameweek 3
Port Vale
0-0
Bolton
Forrester (45+2'), C (86')
Santos (10'), Williams (49')
Santos (37')
Aug 31, 2021 7pm
Group Stage
Bolton
3-2
Port Vale
Doyle (28'), Delfouneso (54'), Afolayan (77')
Delfouneso (67'), Santos (75'), Baptiste (81'), Brockbank (90')
Conlon (35'), Amoo (43')
> Preview
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
> View full version> Yesterday's results
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Birmingham CityBirmingham20153237162148
2Wycombe WanderersWycombe21145246222447
3Wrexham22136333151845
4Huddersfield TownHuddersfield21133535181742
5Stockport CountyStockport22106634231136
6Reading2110473431334
7Barnsley229673131033
8Mansfield TownMansfield209472622431
9Lincoln CityLincoln228772826231
10Bolton WanderersBolton209472931-231
11Charlton AthleticCharlton218672520530
12Exeter CityExeter219392223-130
13Leyton Orient218492620628
14Wigan AthleticWigan217682018227
15Blackpool217683033-327
16Stevenage207581520-526
17Peterborough UnitedPeterborough2173113840-224
18Rotherham UnitedRotherham206591922-323
19Bristol Rovers2164111932-1322
20Northampton TownNorthampton2256112238-1621
21Crawley TownCrawley2154122036-1619
22Cambridge UnitedCambridge2145122137-1617
23Shrewsbury TownShrewsbury2143142241-1915
24Burton Albion2126131734-1712
> League One Full Table


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