League One

League One | Gameweek 45

Apr 20, 2024 at 3pm UK

University of Bolton Stadium

Bolton
2 - 0
Port Vale

Collins (72'), Jerome (90+3')
Maghoma (70'), Charles (70'), Toal (79')

FT(HT: 0-0)

Garrity (70')

Preview

Data Analysis

Lineups

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's League One clash between Bolton Wanderers and Port Vale, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Bolton Wanderers

All competitions

Last Game: Bolton 2-2 Shrewsbury
Tuesday, April 16 at 7.45pm in League One

Goals
for

Top scorers

Port Vale

All competitions

Last Game: Port Vale 1-2 Wycombe
Tuesday, April 16 at 7.45pm in League One

Goals
for

Top scorers

We said: Bolton Wanderers 2-0 Port Vale

Bolton head into this game as the clear favourites, boasting more than double Port Vale's points tally this season. The hosts have not lost in this fixture since a 6-3 defeat in December 2020, and we expect them to continue that unbeaten run with a victory here, in a must-win match for both sides. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bolton Wanderers win with a probability of 73.65%. A draw had a probability of 16% and a win for Port Vale had a probability of 10.35%.

The most likely scoreline for a Bolton Wanderers win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.33%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (9.37%) and 2-1 (9.3%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.51%), while for a Port Vale win it was 1-2 (3.08%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with an 11.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted a 2-0 win for Bolton Wanderers in this match.

Result
Bolton Wanderers	Draw	Port Vale
73.65% ( 0.04)	16% ( -0.02)	10.35% ( -0.02)

Both teams to score 51.29% (

0.01)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

64.05% (

0.04)

35.95% (

-0.04)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

41.96% (

0.04)

58.04% (

-0.04)

Bolton Wanderers Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

91.62% (

0.02)

8.38% (

-0.02)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

70.84% (

0.04)

29.16% (

-0.04)

Port Vale Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

55.99% (

-0)

44.01% (

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

19.87% (

-0)

80.13% (

0.01)

Score Analysis

Bolton Wanderers 73.64%

Port Vale 10.35%

Draw 16%

Bolton Wanderers	Draw	Port Vale
2-0 @ 11.33% 3-0 @ 9.37% ( 0.01) 2-1 @ 9.3% ( -0) 1-0 @ 9.15% ( -0.01) 3-1 @ 7.69% ( 0) 4-0 @ 5.81% ( 0.01) 4-1 @ 4.77% ( 0.01) 3-2 @ 3.16% ( 0) 5-0 @ 2.88% ( 0.01) 5-1 @ 2.36% ( 0) 4-2 @ 1.96% ( 0) 6-0 @ 1.19% ( 0) 6-1 @ 0.98% ( 0) 5-2 @ 0.97% ( 0) Other @ 2.75% Total : 73.64%	1-1 @ 7.51% ( -0.01) 2-2 @ 3.82% ( -0) 0-0 @ 3.69% ( -0.01) Other @ 0.98% Total : 16%	1-2 @ 3.08% ( -0) 0-1 @ 3.03% ( -0.01) 0-2 @ 1.24% ( -0) 2-3 @ 1.05% Other @ 1.96% Total : 10.35%