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Championship header 2

League One
Lincoln City
League One | Gameweek 29
Jan 20, 2024 at 3pm UK
LNER Stadium
Derby logo

Lincoln
0 - 0
Derby


Taylor (68'), Draper (68')
FT

Elder (18'), Wilson (45+2')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's League One clash between Lincoln City and Derby County, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Lincoln City

All competitions
Last Game: Wycombe 1-1 Lincoln
Saturday, January 13 at 3pm in League One

Derby County

All competitions
League One
Last Game: Derby 3-2 Burton Albion
Monday, January 15 at 8pm in League One

We said: Lincoln City 1-2 Derby County

 Derby have won each of their last five away trips, and we think that they will continue that run of form against a Lincoln side that has lost four of their previous five matches. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 60.33%. A draw had a probability of 22.6% and a win for Lincoln City had a probability of 17.08%.

The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.65%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (11.5%) and 1-2 (9.74%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.72%), while for a Lincoln City win it was 1-0 (5.9%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 7% likelihood.

Result
Lincoln CityDrawDerby County
17.08% (0.041 0.04) 22.59% (0.018000000000001 0.02) 60.33% (-0.058999999999997 -0.06)
Both teams to score 47.84% (0.030000000000001 0.03)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
49.75% (-0.0040000000000049 -0)50.24% (0.0020000000000024 0)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
27.8% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)72.19% (0.0020000000000095 0)
Lincoln City Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
57.12% (0.050999999999995 0.05)42.88% (-0.052999999999997 -0.05)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
20.81% (0.042999999999999 0.04)79.19% (-0.043999999999997 -0.04)
Derby County Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
83.75% (-0.022000000000006 -0.02)16.24% (0.021999999999998 0.02)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
54.23% (-0.039999999999999 -0.04)45.77% (0.037999999999997 0.04)
Score Analysis
    Lincoln City 17.08%
    Derby County 60.32%
    Draw 22.59%
Lincoln CityDrawDerby County
1-0 @ 5.9% (0.0089999999999995 0.01)
2-1 @ 4.54% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
2-0 @ 2.5% (0.008 0.01)
3-1 @ 1.28% (0.004 0)
3-2 @ 1.16% (0.0029999999999999 0)
Other @ 1.7%
Total : 17.08%
1-1 @ 10.72% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
0-0 @ 6.97% (0.00099999999999945 0)
2-2 @ 4.13% (0.0069999999999997 0.01)
Other @ 0.78%
Total : 22.59%
0-1 @ 12.65% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
0-2 @ 11.5% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
1-2 @ 9.74% (0.00099999999999945 0)
0-3 @ 6.97% (-0.015 -0.01)
1-3 @ 5.9% (-0.0040000000000004 -0)
0-4 @ 3.17% (-0.0089999999999999 -0.01)
1-4 @ 2.68% (-0.004 -0)
2-3 @ 2.5% (0.0020000000000002 0)
0-5 @ 1.15% (-0.004 -0)
2-4 @ 1.14%
1-5 @ 0.98% (-0.002 -0)
Other @ 1.96%
Total : 60.32%

How you voted: Lincoln vs Derby

Lincoln City
46.2%
Draw
7.7%
Derby County
46.2%
13
Head to Head
Dec 21, 2023 7.45pm
Gameweek 23
Derby
3-1
Lincoln
Hourihane (26'), Wilson (65'), Collins (77')
Hourihane (84'), Collins (90+3')
Mandroiu (45+2' pen.)
Jackson (57'), Vale (85'), Erhahon (89')
> Preview
Sep 19, 2023 7pm
Group Stage
Derby
2-0
Lincoln
Barkhuizen (51'), Sibley (77')
Fornah (4'), Elder (36')

Duffy (53')
Feb 14, 2023 7.45pm
Gameweek 32
Derby
1-1
Lincoln
Hourihane (69')
Shodipo (43')
Sep 13, 2022 7.45pm
Gameweek 9
Lincoln
2-0
Derby
Diamond (12' pen.), House (68')
rhs 2.0
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> View full version> Yesterday's results
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Wycombe WanderersWycombe14102232161632
2Birmingham CityBirmingham1393124121230
3Wrexham1584322111128
4Stockport CountyStockport167632617927
5Barnsley157532419526
6Lincoln CityLincoln157532117426
7Mansfield TownMansfield137332015524
8Huddersfield TownHuddersfield147252114723
9Exeter CityExeter147251410423
10Reading147252221123
11Bolton WanderersBolton147252224-223
12Peterborough UnitedPeterborough156363127421
13Charlton AthleticCharlton145451515019
14Bristol Rovers155371621-518
15Stevenage155371116-518
16Northampton TownNorthampton154561821-317
17Rotherham UnitedRotherham154561418-417
18Blackpool154562128-717
19Wigan AthleticWigan143561212014
20Leyton Orient144281418-414
21Crawley TownCrawley163491427-1313
22Cambridge UnitedCambridge143291324-1111
23Burton Albion141581525-108
24Shrewsbury TownShrewsbury1522111327-148
> League One Full Table


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