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League One
Lincoln City
League One | Gameweek 29
Jan 20, 2024 at 3pm UK
LNER Stadium
Derby logo

Lincoln
0 - 0
Derby


Taylor (68'), Draper (68')
FT

Elder (18'), Wilson (45+2')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's League One clash between Lincoln City and Derby County, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Lincoln City

All competitions
Last Game: Wycombe 1-1 Lincoln
Saturday, January 13 at 3pm in League One

Derby County

All competitions
League One
Last Game: Derby 3-2 Burton Albion
Monday, January 15 at 8pm in League One

We said: Lincoln City 1-2 Derby County

 Derby have won each of their last five away trips, and we think that they will continue that run of form against a Lincoln side that has lost four of their previous five matches. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 60.33%. A draw had a probability of 22.6% and a win for Lincoln City had a probability of 17.08%.

The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.65%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (11.5%) and 1-2 (9.74%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.72%), while for a Lincoln City win it was 1-0 (5.9%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 7% likelihood.

Result
Lincoln CityDrawDerby County
17.08% (0.041 0.04) 22.59% (0.018000000000001 0.02) 60.33% (-0.058999999999997 -0.06)
Both teams to score 47.84% (0.030000000000001 0.03)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
49.75% (-0.0040000000000049 -0)50.24% (0.0020000000000024 0)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
27.8% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)72.19% (0.0020000000000095 0)
Lincoln City Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
57.12% (0.050999999999995 0.05)42.88% (-0.052999999999997 -0.05)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
20.81% (0.042999999999999 0.04)79.19% (-0.043999999999997 -0.04)
Derby County Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
83.75% (-0.022000000000006 -0.02)16.24% (0.021999999999998 0.02)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
54.23% (-0.039999999999999 -0.04)45.77% (0.037999999999997 0.04)
Score Analysis
    Lincoln City 17.08%
    Derby County 60.32%
    Draw 22.59%
Lincoln CityDrawDerby County
1-0 @ 5.9% (0.0089999999999995 0.01)
2-1 @ 4.54% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
2-0 @ 2.5% (0.008 0.01)
3-1 @ 1.28% (0.004 0)
3-2 @ 1.16% (0.0029999999999999 0)
Other @ 1.7%
Total : 17.08%
1-1 @ 10.72% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
0-0 @ 6.97% (0.00099999999999945 0)
2-2 @ 4.13% (0.0069999999999997 0.01)
Other @ 0.78%
Total : 22.59%
0-1 @ 12.65% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
0-2 @ 11.5% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
1-2 @ 9.74% (0.00099999999999945 0)
0-3 @ 6.97% (-0.015 -0.01)
1-3 @ 5.9% (-0.0040000000000004 -0)
0-4 @ 3.17% (-0.0089999999999999 -0.01)
1-4 @ 2.68% (-0.004 -0)
2-3 @ 2.5% (0.0020000000000002 0)
0-5 @ 1.15% (-0.004 -0)
2-4 @ 1.14%
1-5 @ 0.98% (-0.002 -0)
Other @ 1.96%
Total : 60.32%

How you voted: Lincoln vs Derby

Lincoln City
46.2%
Draw
7.7%
Derby County
46.2%
13
Head to Head
Dec 21, 2023 7.45pm
Gameweek 23
Derby
3-1
Lincoln
Hourihane (26'), Wilson (65'), Collins (77')
Hourihane (84'), Collins (90+3')
Mandroiu (45+2' pen.)
Jackson (57'), Vale (85'), Erhahon (89')
> Preview
Sep 19, 2023 7pm
Group Stage
Derby
2-0
Lincoln
Barkhuizen (51'), Sibley (77')
Fornah (4'), Elder (36')

Duffy (53')
Feb 14, 2023 7.45pm
Gameweek 32
Derby
1-1
Lincoln
Hourihane (69')
Shodipo (43')
Sep 13, 2022 7.45pm
Gameweek 9
Lincoln
2-0
Derby
Diamond (12' pen.), House (68')
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
> View full version> Yesterday's results
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Wycombe WanderersWycombe19134243222143
2Birmingham CityBirmingham18133234161842
3Wrexham20125330131741
4Huddersfield TownHuddersfield19113530181236
5Stockport CountyStockport2096532211133
6Reading199463028231
7Barnsley208662926330
8Bolton WanderersBolton189362829-130
9Lincoln CityLincoln207762625128
10Blackpool197572931-226
11Mansfield TownMansfield187472222025
12Stevenage187471517-225
13Peterborough UnitedPeterborough197393735224
14Charlton AthleticCharlton196671819-124
15Exeter CityExeter197391721-424
16Wigan AthleticWigan196581716123
17Rotherham UnitedRotherham186571920-123
18Leyton Orient196491920-122
19Northampton TownNorthampton205692129-821
20Bristol Rovers1963101728-1121
21Crawley TownCrawley1954102032-1219
22Cambridge UnitedCambridge1945102031-1117
23Burton Albion1926111630-1412
24Shrewsbury TownShrewsbury1932141939-2011
> League One Full Table


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