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League One
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League One | Gameweek 30
Jan 27, 2024 at 3pm UK
Pride Park Stadium
Cheltenham Town

Derby
2 - 1
Cheltenham

Bird (60'), Collins (81')
Wilson (89')
FT(HT: 0-0)
Sercombe (50')
Freestone (55'), Long (70')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's League One clash between Derby County and Cheltenham Town, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Derby County

All competitions
League One
Last Game: Reading 1-0 Derby
Tuesday, January 23 at 8pm in League One

Cheltenham Town

All competitions
Last Game: Bolton 1-0 Cheltenham
Tuesday, January 23 at 7.45pm in League One

We said: Derby County 2-1 Cheltenham Town

 Keen to bounce back to winning ways against a resilient Cheltenham Town side who are fighting for their third-tier status, Derby County face a difficult test on Saturday but should have the quality to come out on top at Pride Park. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 72.25%. A draw had a probability of 16.9% and a win for Cheltenham Town had a probability of 10.82%.

The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.92%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (10.13%) and 2-1 (9.44%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.02%), while for a Cheltenham Town win it was 0-1 (3.41%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Derby County in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Derby County.

Result
Derby CountyDrawCheltenham Town
72.25% (-0.027000000000001 -0.03) 16.93% (0.010999999999999 0.01) 10.82% (0.016 0.02)
Both teams to score 49.5% (0.015000000000001 0.02)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
60.86% (-0.0090000000000003 -0.01)39.13% (0.0090000000000003 0.01)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
38.53% (-0.009999999999998 -0.01)61.46% (0.0090000000000003 0.01)
Derby County Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
90.5% (-0.010000000000005 -0.01)9.5% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
68.14% (-0.021000000000001 -0.02)31.86% (0.022000000000002 0.02)
Cheltenham Town Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
54.69% (0.022000000000006 0.02)45.31% (-0.023000000000003 -0.02)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
18.82% (0.016000000000002 0.02)81.18% (-0.016999999999996 -0.02)
Score Analysis
    Derby County 72.24%
    Cheltenham Town 10.82%
    Draw 16.93%
Derby CountyDrawCheltenham Town
2-0 @ 11.92%
1-0 @ 10.13%
2-1 @ 9.44% (0.0019999999999989 0)
3-0 @ 9.36% (-0.0069999999999997 -0.01)
3-1 @ 7.41% (-0.00099999999999945 -0)
4-0 @ 5.51% (-0.0069999999999997 -0.01)
4-1 @ 4.36% (-0.0019999999999998 -0)
3-2 @ 2.93% (0.00099999999999989 0)
5-0 @ 2.59% (-0.004 -0)
5-1 @ 2.05% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
4-2 @ 1.73%
6-0 @ 1.02% (-0.002 -0)
Other @ 3.8%
Total : 72.24%
1-1 @ 8.02% (0.004999999999999 0)
0-0 @ 4.3% (0.0019999999999998 0)
2-2 @ 3.74% (0.0030000000000001 0)
Other @ 0.87%
Total : 16.93%
0-1 @ 3.41% (0.004 0)
1-2 @ 3.18% (0.004 0)
0-2 @ 1.35% (0.0029999999999999 0)
2-3 @ 0.99% (0.001 0)
Other @ 1.9%
Total : 10.82%

Head to Head
Oct 7, 2023 3pm
Gameweek 12
Cheltenham
1-1
Derby
Street (39')
Bradbury (70')
Nelson (45+7')
Feb 28, 2023 7.45pm
Gameweek 11
Derby
2-0
Cheltenham
McGoldrick (43'), Dobbin (67')
> Preview
Jan 14, 2023 3pm
Gameweek 27
Cheltenham
2-3
Derby
Taylor (2'), May (77')
Hourihane (8'), Bird (11'), Barkhuizen (55')
> Preview
rhs 2.0
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> View full version> Yesterday's results
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Wycombe WanderersWycombe15112235181735
2Wrexham1694325111431
3Stockport CountyStockport1786329171230
4Birmingham CityBirmingham1493226151130
5Huddersfield TownHuddersfield158252315826
6Barnsley167542420426
7Lincoln CityLincoln167542320326
8Reading158252422226
9Bolton WanderersBolton158252425-126
10Mansfield TownMansfield147342016424
11Exeter CityExeter157261413123
12Peterborough UnitedPeterborough166373229321
13Bristol Rovers166371721-421
14Charlton AthleticCharlton155461617-119
15Stevenage165471116-519
16Northampton TownNorthampton164661821-318
17Wigan AthleticWigan154561312117
18Rotherham UnitedRotherham164571419-517
19Blackpool164572230-817
20Crawley TownCrawley174491527-1216
21Leyton Orient154381418-415
22Cambridge UnitedCambridge153391324-1112
23Shrewsbury TownShrewsbury1632111629-1311
24Burton Albion151591528-138
> League One Full Table


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