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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Oxford United win with a probability of 48.22%. A win for Port Vale had a probability of 26.82% and a draw had a probability of 25%.
The most likely scoreline for a Oxford United win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.6%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.42%) and 2-0 (8.42%). The likeliest Port Vale win was 0-1 (7.47%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.86%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 1.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Oxford United would win this match.
Result | ||
Oxford United | Draw | Port Vale |
48.22% ( -0.13) | 24.97% ( 0.02) | 26.82% ( 0.11) |
Both teams to score 53.56% ( 0.03) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
50.79% | 49.21% |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
28.73% | 71.27% |
Oxford United Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
79.56% ( -0.05) | 20.44% ( 0.05) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
47.11% ( -0.09) | 52.89% ( 0.09) |
Port Vale Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
67.32% ( 0.08) | 32.68% ( -0.09) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
30.78% ( 0.09) | 69.23% ( -0.09) |
Score Analysis |
Oxford United | Draw | Port Vale |
1-0 @ 10.6% ( -0.02) 2-1 @ 9.42% ( -0.01) 2-0 @ 8.42% ( -0.03) 3-1 @ 4.98% ( -0.01) 3-0 @ 4.46% ( -0.02) 3-2 @ 2.79% ( -0) 4-1 @ 1.98% ( -0.01) 4-0 @ 1.77% ( -0.01) 4-2 @ 1.11% ( -0) Other @ 2.7% Total : 48.21% | 1-1 @ 11.86% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 6.68% 2-2 @ 5.27% ( 0.01) 3-3 @ 1.04% ( 0) Other @ 0.12% Total : 24.97% | 0-1 @ 7.47% ( 0.02) 1-2 @ 6.63% ( 0.02) 0-2 @ 4.18% ( 0.02) 1-3 @ 2.47% ( 0.01) 2-3 @ 1.96% ( 0.01) 0-3 @ 1.56% ( 0.01) Other @ 2.54% Total : 26.82% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Birmingham CityBirmingham | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 16 | 8 | 8 | 19 |
2 | Wrexham | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 14 | 6 | 8 | 17 |
3 | Lincoln CityLincoln | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 12 | 6 | 6 | 14 |
4 | Blackpool | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 16 | 13 | 3 | 14 |
5 | Mansfield TownMansfield | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 11 | 2 | 14 |
6 | Barnsley | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 11 | 2 | 14 |
7 | Wycombe WanderersWycombe | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 11 | 3 | 13 |
8 | Charlton AthleticCharlton | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 13 |
9 | Stockport CountyStockport | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 11 | 7 | 4 | 12 |
10 | Huddersfield TownHuddersfield | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 12 | 10 | 2 | 12 |
11 | Stevenage | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 11 |
12 | Peterborough UnitedPeterborough | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 14 | 14 | 0 | 11 |
13 | Exeter CityExeter | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 10 |
14 | Bolton WanderersBolton | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 11 | -2 | 10 |
15 | Reading | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 11 | -2 | 10 |
16 | Wigan AthleticWigan | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 9 |
17 | Northampton TownNorthampton | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 8 |
18 | Leyton Orient | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 11 | -2 | 8 |
19 | Rotherham UnitedRotherham | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 10 | -4 | 7 |
20 | Crawley TownCrawley | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 10 | -5 | 7 |
21 | Bristol Rovers | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 7 | 13 | -6 | 7 |
22 | Burton Albion | 7 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 13 | -5 | 4 |
23 | Shrewsbury TownShrewsbury | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 13 | -7 | 4 |
24 | Cambridge UnitedCambridge | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 15 | -9 | 1 |
> League One Full Table |