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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Plymouth Argyle win with a probability of 54.17%. A draw had a probability of 24.5% and a win for Exeter City had a probability of 21.35%.
The most likely scoreline for a Plymouth Argyle win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.38%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.23%) and 2-1 (9.6%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.62%), while for a Exeter City win it was 0-1 (7.03%). The actual scoreline of 4-2 was predicted with a 1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Plymouth Argyle would win this match.
Result | ||
Plymouth Argyle | Draw | Exeter City |
54.17% ( 0.2) | 24.47% ( -0.04) | 21.35% ( -0.16) |
Both teams to score 49.21% ( -0.1) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
47.93% ( -0.02) | 52.07% ( 0.02) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
26.2% ( -0.02) | 73.79% ( 0.02) |
Plymouth Argyle Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
80.85% ( 0.07) | 19.15% ( -0.07) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
49.2% ( 0.12) | 50.8% ( -0.12) |
Exeter City Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
60.86% ( -0.17) | 39.13% ( 0.18) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
24.15% ( -0.16) | 75.85% ( 0.16) |
Score Analysis |
Plymouth Argyle | Draw | Exeter City |
1-0 @ 12.38% ( 0.04) 2-0 @ 10.23% ( 0.05) 2-1 @ 9.6% ( 0) 3-0 @ 5.64% ( 0.04) 3-1 @ 5.29% ( 0.01) 3-2 @ 2.48% ( -0) 4-0 @ 2.33% ( 0.02) 4-1 @ 2.19% ( 0.01) 4-2 @ 1.03% Other @ 2.99% Total : 54.16% | 1-1 @ 11.62% ( -0.02) 0-0 @ 7.49% ( 0) 2-2 @ 4.51% ( -0.02) Other @ 0.86% Total : 24.47% | 0-1 @ 7.03% ( -0.03) 1-2 @ 5.45% ( -0.04) 0-2 @ 3.3% ( -0.03) 1-3 @ 1.71% ( -0.02) 2-3 @ 1.41% ( -0.01) 0-3 @ 1.03% ( -0.01) Other @ 1.43% Total : 21.35% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Birmingham CityBirmingham | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 16 | 8 | 8 | 19 |
2 | Wrexham | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 14 | 6 | 8 | 17 |
3 | Lincoln CityLincoln | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 12 | 6 | 6 | 14 |
4 | Blackpool | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 16 | 13 | 3 | 14 |
5 | Mansfield TownMansfield | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 11 | 2 | 14 |
6 | Barnsley | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 11 | 2 | 14 |
7 | Wycombe WanderersWycombe | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 11 | 3 | 13 |
8 | Charlton AthleticCharlton | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 13 |
9 | Stockport CountyStockport | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 11 | 7 | 4 | 12 |
10 | Huddersfield TownHuddersfield | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 12 | 10 | 2 | 12 |
11 | Stevenage | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 11 |
12 | Peterborough UnitedPeterborough | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 14 | 14 | 0 | 11 |
13 | Exeter CityExeter | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 10 |
14 | Bolton WanderersBolton | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 11 | -2 | 10 |
15 | Reading | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 11 | -2 | 10 |
16 | Wigan AthleticWigan | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 9 |
17 | Northampton TownNorthampton | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 8 |
18 | Leyton Orient | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 11 | -2 | 8 |
19 | Rotherham UnitedRotherham | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 10 | -4 | 7 |
20 | Crawley TownCrawley | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 10 | -5 | 7 |
21 | Bristol Rovers | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 7 | 13 | -6 | 7 |
22 | Burton Albion | 7 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 13 | -5 | 4 |
23 | Shrewsbury TownShrewsbury | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 13 | -7 | 4 |
24 | Cambridge UnitedCambridge | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 15 | -9 | 1 |
> League One Full Table |