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Championship header 2

League Two
AFC Wimbledon
League Two | Gameweek 11
Oct 12, 2024 at 3pm UK
Kingsmeadow
Carlisle United

AFC Wimbledon
4 - 0
Carlisle

Stevens (8', 39', 50'), Harper (45+3' og.)
Maycock (6'), Harbottle (56')
FT(HT: 3-0)

Barclay (34'), Vela (60')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's League Two clash between AFC Wimbledon and Carlisle United, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

AFC Wimbledon

All competitions
League Two
Last Game: Crawley 3-4 AFC Wimbledon
Tuesday, October 8 at 7.45pm in EFL Trophy

Carlisle United

All competitions
League Two
Last Game: Carlisle 0-2 Wigan
Tuesday, October 8 at 7pm in EFL Trophy

We said: AFC Wimbledon 3-1 Carlisle United

 Considering that Carlisle are dealing with numerous injury absentees, it would not be surprising if Wimbledon were able to take advantage of the visitors' lack of cohesiveness. Additionally, the hosts have a strong record at home this season, and they should come into Saturday's match as clear favourites. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AFC Wimbledon win with a probability of 44.34%. A win for Carlisle United had a probability of 29.44% and a draw had a probability of 26.2%.

The most likely scoreline for an AFC Wimbledon win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.11%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.97%) and 2-0 (8%). The likeliest Carlisle United win was 0-1 (8.66%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.46%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 1.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that AFC Wimbledon would win this match.

Result
AFC WimbledonDrawCarlisle United
44.34% (0.015999999999998 0.02) 26.22% (-0.078999999999997 -0.08) 29.44% (0.066000000000003 0.07)
Both teams to score 51.45% (0.281 0.28)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
47.18% (0.346 0.35)52.82% (-0.343 -0.34)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
25.56% (0.296 0.3)74.44% (-0.29299999999999 -0.29)
AFC Wimbledon Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
76.29% (0.16200000000001 0.16)23.71% (-0.158 -0.16)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
42.17% (0.229 0.23)57.83% (-0.226 -0.23)
Carlisle United Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
67.43% (0.227 0.23)32.56% (-0.22499999999999 -0.22)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
30.9% (0.255 0.25)69.1% (-0.25200000000001 -0.25)
Score Analysis
    AFC Wimbledon 44.34%
    Carlisle United 29.44%
    Draw 26.21%
AFC WimbledonDrawCarlisle United
1-0 @ 11.11% (-0.1 -0.1)
2-1 @ 8.97% (0.016 0.02)
2-0 @ 8% (-0.034000000000001 -0.03)
3-1 @ 4.31% (0.028 0.03)
3-0 @ 3.84% (0.0010000000000003 0)
3-2 @ 2.42% (0.03 0.03)
4-1 @ 1.55% (0.017 0.02)
4-0 @ 1.38% (0.0069999999999999 0.01)
Other @ 2.77%
Total : 44.34%
1-1 @ 12.46% (-0.039999999999999 -0.04)
0-0 @ 7.72% (-0.105 -0.11)
2-2 @ 5.03% (0.040999999999999 0.04)
3-3 @ 0.9% (0.017 0.02)
Other @ 0.1%
Total : 26.21%
0-1 @ 8.66% (-0.064 -0.06)
1-2 @ 6.99% (0.024 0.02)
0-2 @ 4.86% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)
1-3 @ 2.62% (0.025 0.02)
2-3 @ 1.88% (0.027 0.03)
0-3 @ 1.82% (0.0089999999999999 0.01)
Other @ 2.61%
Total : 29.44%

How you voted: AFC Wimbledon vs Carlisle

AFC Wimbledon
87.5%
Draw
12.5%
Carlisle United
0.0%
32
Head to Head
Feb 11, 2023 3pm
Gameweek 31
AFC Wimbledon
0-0
Carlisle
Sep 17, 2022 3pm
Gameweek 10
Carlisle
2-1
AFC Wimbledon
Guy (45'), Dennis (81')
Assal (59')
Feb 23, 2016 7.45pm
AFC Wimbledon
1-0
Carlisle
Robinson (53')

Comley (79')
Gillespie (50')
Aug 22, 2015 3pm
Carlisle
1-1
AFC Wimbledon
Ibehre (67')
Grainger (71'), Miller (76'), Raynes (92')
Barcham (36')
Osborne (88')
Jan 17, 2015 3pm
AFC Wimbledon
1-3
Carlisle
Akinfenwa (1')
O'Hanlon (16'), Rigg (56'), Amoo (94')
Grainger (71'), Young (87')
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
> View full version> Yesterday's results
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Port Vale1610332416833
2Crewe AlexandraCrewe158431913628
3Doncaster RoversDoncaster168442218428
4Walsall1483327151227
5MK Dons168352719827
6Notts County167632315827
7Grimsby Town168171925-625
8AFC Wimbledon1472523131023
9Bradford CityBradford166552117423
10Gillingham157261612423
11Chesterfield165742920922
12BarrowBarrow166461715222
13Fleetwood TownFleetwood145632015521
14Salford City165651518-321
15Newport CountyNewport166281926-720
16Accrington StanleyAccrington164662226-418
17Cheltenham TownCheltenham165382125-418
18Harrogate TownHarrogate165381422-818
19Tranmere RoversTranmere144551017-717
20Bromley153751719-216
21Colchester UnitedColchester152851822-414
22Swindon TownSwindon162771825-713
23Carlisle UnitedCarlisle1633101429-1512
24Morecambe1624101427-1310
> League Two Full Table


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