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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Barrow win with a probability of 55.36%. A draw had a probability of 24.3% and a win for Hartlepool United had a probability of 20.29%.
The most likely scoreline for a Barrow win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.8%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.65%) and 2-1 (9.59%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.53%), while for a Hartlepool United win it was 0-1 (6.94%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Barrow would win this match.
Result | ||
Barrow | Draw | Hartlepool United |
55.36% ( -0.74) | 24.35% ( 0.1) | 20.29% ( 0.64) |
Both teams to score 48.11% ( 0.66) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
47.24% ( 0.38) | 52.76% ( -0.38) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
25.61% ( 0.32) | 74.39% ( -0.32) |
Barrow Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
81.04% ( -0.14) | 18.96% ( 0.14) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
49.52% ( -0.23) | 50.48% ( 0.23) |
Hartlepool United Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
59.36% ( 0.91) | 40.63% ( -0.91) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
22.77% ( 0.81) | 77.23% ( -0.81) |
Score Analysis |
Barrow | Draw | Hartlepool United |
1-0 @ 12.8% ( -0.25) 2-0 @ 10.65% ( -0.25) 2-1 @ 9.59% ( 0.01) 3-0 @ 5.91% ( -0.17) 3-1 @ 5.32% ( -0.02) 4-0 @ 2.46% ( -0.08) 3-2 @ 2.4% ( 0.05) 4-1 @ 2.21% ( -0.02) 4-2 @ 1% ( 0.02) Other @ 3.02% Total : 55.35% | 1-1 @ 11.53% ( 0.06) 0-0 @ 7.7% ( -0.12) 2-2 @ 4.32% ( 0.11) Other @ 0.79% Total : 24.34% | 0-1 @ 6.94% ( 0.07) 1-2 @ 5.19% ( 0.16) 0-2 @ 3.12% ( 0.11) 1-3 @ 1.56% ( 0.08) 2-3 @ 1.3% ( 0.07) 0-3 @ 0.94% ( 0.05) Other @ 1.25% Total : 20.29% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Port Vale | 16 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 24 | 16 | 8 | 33 |
2 | Crewe AlexandraCrewe | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 19 | 13 | 6 | 28 |
3 | Doncaster RoversDoncaster | 16 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 22 | 18 | 4 | 28 |
4 | Walsall | 14 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 27 | 15 | 12 | 27 |
5 | MK Dons | 16 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 27 | 19 | 8 | 27 |
6 | Notts County | 16 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 23 | 15 | 8 | 27 |
7 | Grimsby Town | 16 | 8 | 1 | 7 | 19 | 25 | -6 | 25 |
8 | Bradford CityBradford | 16 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 21 | 17 | 4 | 23 |
9 | Gillingham | 15 | 7 | 2 | 6 | 16 | 12 | 4 | 23 |
10 | AFC Wimbledon | 13 | 7 | 1 | 5 | 21 | 11 | 10 | 22 |
11 | Chesterfield | 16 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 29 | 20 | 9 | 22 |
12 | BarrowBarrow | 16 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 17 | 15 | 2 | 22 |
13 | Fleetwood TownFleetwood | 14 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 20 | 15 | 5 | 21 |
14 | Salford City | 16 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 15 | 18 | -3 | 21 |
15 | Newport CountyNewport | 16 | 6 | 2 | 8 | 19 | 26 | -7 | 20 |
16 | Cheltenham TownCheltenham | 16 | 5 | 3 | 8 | 21 | 25 | -4 | 18 |
17 | Harrogate TownHarrogate | 16 | 5 | 3 | 8 | 14 | 22 | -8 | 18 |
18 | Accrington StanleyAccrington | 15 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 20 | 24 | -4 | 17 |
19 | Tranmere RoversTranmere | 14 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 10 | 17 | -7 | 17 |
20 | Bromley | 15 | 3 | 7 | 5 | 17 | 19 | -2 | 16 |
21 | Colchester UnitedColchester | 15 | 2 | 8 | 5 | 18 | 22 | -4 | 14 |
22 | Swindon TownSwindon | 16 | 2 | 7 | 7 | 18 | 25 | -7 | 13 |
23 | Carlisle UnitedCarlisle | 16 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 14 | 29 | -15 | 12 |
24 | Morecambe | 16 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 14 | 27 | -13 | 10 |
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