League Two | Gameweek 38
Mar 25, 2023 at 3pm UK
The People's Pension Stadium
We said: Crawley Town 2-1 Rochdale
Effectively consigning their visitors to the drop, Crawley can pull 10 points clear of Rochdale with a win and are likely to do so. Despite their last-gasp heroics last time out, Dale are too vulnerable defensively and rarely do well on the road.
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Data Analysis Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Crawley Town win with a probability of 47.2% . A win for Rochdale had a probability of 26.9% and a draw had a probability of 25.9% .
The most likely scoreline for a Crawley Town win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.58% . The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.21%) and 2-0 (8.66%) . The likeliest Rochdale win was 0-1 (8.22%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.3%) . The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with an 8.7% likelihood . Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Crawley Town would win this match.
Result Crawley Town Draw Rochdale 47.2% ( -0.07) 25.89% ( 0.03) 26.9% ( 0.04)
Both teams to score 50.78% ( -0.05)
47.11% ( -0.09) 52.88% ( 0.09)
25.5% ( -0.08) 74.49% ( 0.08)
77.6% ( -0.07) 22.4% ( 0.07)
Over 1.5 Under 1.5 44.09% ( -0.1) 55.91% ( 0.1)
65.43% ( -0.01) 34.56% ( 0.01)
Over 1.5 Under 1.5 28.72% ( -0.01) 71.28% ( 0.01)
Crawley Town 47.2%
Rochdale 26.9%
Draw 25.89%
Crawley Town Draw Rochdale 1-0 @ 11.58% ( 0.02) 2-1 @ 9.21% ( -0.01) 2-0 @ 8.66% ( -0.01) 3-1 @ 4.59% ( -0.01) 3-0 @ 4.32% ( -0.01) 3-2 @ 2.44% ( -0.01) 4-1 @ 1.72% ( -0.01) 4-0 @ 1.62% ( -0.01) 4-2 @ 0.91% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.16% Total : 47.2% 1-1 @ 12.3% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 7.74% ( 0.03) 2-2 @ 4.89% ( -0.01) Other @ 0.96% Total : 25.89% 0-1 @ 8.22% ( 0.03) 1-2 @ 6.54% ( 0) 0-2 @ 4.37% ( 0.01) 1-3 @ 2.32% ( 0) 2-3 @ 1.73% ( -0) 0-3 @ 1.55% ( 0) Other @ 2.18% Total : 26.9%
How you voted: Crawley vs Rochdale
15
rhs 2.0
LT: 2024-07-05 05:48:46
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