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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mansfield Town win with a probability of 58.47%. A draw had a probability of 23% and a win for Crawley Town had a probability of 18.56%.
The most likely scoreline for a Mansfield Town win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.14%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.88%) and 2-1 (9.79%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.91%), while for a Crawley Town win it was 0-1 (6.09%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 2.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Mansfield Town would win this match.
Result | ||
Mansfield Town | Draw | Crawley Town |
58.47% ( -0.21) | 22.96% ( 0.09) | 18.56% ( 0.12) |
Both teams to score 49.44% ( -0.07) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
50.45% ( -0.21) | 49.54% ( 0.21) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
28.43% ( -0.19) | 71.57% ( 0.19) |
Mansfield Town Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
83.36% ( -0.15) | 16.64% ( 0.14) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
53.52% ( -0.26) | 46.48% ( 0.26) |
Crawley Town Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
59.31% ( 0.02) | 40.69% ( -0.02) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
22.72% ( 0.01) | 77.28% ( -0.02) |
Score Analysis |
Mansfield Town | Draw | Crawley Town |
1-0 @ 12.14% ( 0.05) 2-0 @ 10.88% ( -0.02) 2-1 @ 9.79% ( -0.01) 3-0 @ 6.51% ( -0.04) 3-1 @ 5.85% ( -0.03) 4-0 @ 2.92% ( -0.03) 3-2 @ 2.63% ( -0.02) 4-1 @ 2.62% ( -0.03) 4-2 @ 1.18% ( -0.01) 5-0 @ 1.05% ( -0.02) 5-1 @ 0.94% ( -0.02) Other @ 1.95% Total : 58.47% | 1-1 @ 10.91% ( 0.04) 0-0 @ 6.77% ( 0.06) 2-2 @ 4.4% ( -0) Other @ 0.87% Total : 22.96% | 0-1 @ 6.09% ( 0.05) 1-2 @ 4.91% ( 0.02) 0-2 @ 2.74% ( 0.02) 1-3 @ 1.47% ( 0.01) 2-3 @ 1.32% Other @ 2.03% Total : 18.56% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Port Vale | 16 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 24 | 16 | 8 | 33 |
2 | Crewe AlexandraCrewe | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 19 | 13 | 6 | 28 |
3 | Doncaster RoversDoncaster | 16 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 22 | 18 | 4 | 28 |
4 | Walsall | 14 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 27 | 15 | 12 | 27 |
5 | MK Dons | 16 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 27 | 19 | 8 | 27 |
6 | Notts County | 16 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 23 | 15 | 8 | 27 |
7 | Grimsby Town | 16 | 8 | 1 | 7 | 19 | 25 | -6 | 25 |
8 | Bradford CityBradford | 16 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 21 | 17 | 4 | 23 |
9 | Gillingham | 15 | 7 | 2 | 6 | 16 | 12 | 4 | 23 |
10 | AFC Wimbledon | 13 | 7 | 1 | 5 | 21 | 11 | 10 | 22 |
11 | Chesterfield | 16 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 29 | 20 | 9 | 22 |
12 | BarrowBarrow | 16 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 17 | 15 | 2 | 22 |
13 | Fleetwood TownFleetwood | 14 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 20 | 15 | 5 | 21 |
14 | Salford City | 16 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 15 | 18 | -3 | 21 |
15 | Newport CountyNewport | 16 | 6 | 2 | 8 | 19 | 26 | -7 | 20 |
16 | Cheltenham TownCheltenham | 16 | 5 | 3 | 8 | 21 | 25 | -4 | 18 |
17 | Harrogate TownHarrogate | 16 | 5 | 3 | 8 | 14 | 22 | -8 | 18 |
18 | Accrington StanleyAccrington | 15 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 20 | 24 | -4 | 17 |
19 | Tranmere RoversTranmere | 14 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 10 | 17 | -7 | 17 |
20 | Bromley | 15 | 3 | 7 | 5 | 17 | 19 | -2 | 16 |
21 | Colchester UnitedColchester | 15 | 2 | 8 | 5 | 18 | 22 | -4 | 14 |
22 | Swindon TownSwindon | 16 | 2 | 7 | 7 | 18 | 25 | -7 | 13 |
23 | Carlisle UnitedCarlisle | 16 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 14 | 29 | -15 | 12 |
24 | Morecambe | 16 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 14 | 27 | -13 | 10 |
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