Even with a couple of injuries rearing their ugly heads for the Auxerre defence, a shot-shy Ajaccio side who have struggled for goals at home all season should experience little joy against Pelissier's backline.
Low-scoring encounters have been the theme for these two sides in recent memory, and there is nothing to suggest that this contest will not follow a similar pattern, but an increasingly resilient Auxerre side can nick a solitary goal to potentially jump out of the bottom four and deepen Ajaccio's relegation fears.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Auxerre win with a probability of 38.57%. A win for Ajaccio had a probability of 34.31% and a draw had a probability of 27.1%.
The most likely scoreline for an Auxerre win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.77%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.25%) and 0-2 (6.91%). The likeliest Ajaccio win was 1-0 (10.03%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.86%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Auxerre would win this match.
-0.02) 
0.03) 
