With a top-six finish now out of the question for both clubs, Lyon and Nantes meet in the penultimate weekend of the 2021-22 Ligue 1 season at the Groupama Stadium on Saturday night.
Les Gones suffered a humbling 3-2 defeat at the hands of relegation-threatened Metz in their most recent game, while the visitors got the better of Rennes 2-1 in midweek.
Match preview
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The final whistle on the 2021-22 season cannot blow soon enough for Lyon, who are already condemned to a season without European football 12 months after being involved in a four-way fight for the domestic crown.
Peter Bosz's future in the Groupama Stadium hotseat came under even more scrutiny as Les Gones shipped three to Metz on matchday 36, with Moussa Dembele's brace in vain as Vincent Pajot, Didier Lamkel Ze and Farid Boulaya struck in a vital success for Les Grenats.
With only two games left this term, Lyon enter the penultimate round of fixtures down in eighth in the table and can only finish as high as sixth, but usurping both Lens and Strasbourg at this late stage will be a tall order for Bosz's side.
Defeat at the Stade Saint-Symphorien certainly brought Lyon crashing back down to earth after putting three past Marseille in the Choc des Olympiques, with goals clearly not being the issue for the free-scoring Gones, who have 17 to boast from their last five.
A three-game winning run at home in Ligue 1 also stands Lyon in good stead ahead of Saturday's contest, although they have now gone four at home without keeping a clean sheet domestically, and Antoine Kombouare's Nantes need no lessons in finding the back of the net.
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Any hangover from their successful Coupe de France exploits quickly ceased to exist for a Nantes side who are only looking upwards, with the cup holders denting their Derby Breton rivals' Champions League hopes by getting the better of Rennes 2-1 in midweek.
Despite Flavien Tait's opener for Les Rouge et Noir, Kalifa Coulibaly and Nicolas Pallois turned the tie on its head for Les Canaris, who have enjoyed a remarkable period of progression after fighting for their lives at this stage of the season last year.
A late push for the top six will not materialise for Kombouare's men - whose Coupe de France win has seen them book a place in the Europa League - but the visitors can still be buoyed by their ninth-placed standing in the table, and they will move two points clear of Lyon should they leapfrog them with victory on Saturday night.
Les Canaris will welcome 18th-placed Saint-Etienne to the Stade de la Beaujoire before the curtain closes on a memorable season, but they travel to Lyon having failed to win any of their last three Ligue 1 games on the road - prevailing in just one of their last eight.
Nantes did come away from the Groupama Stadium with a 1-0 win over Lyon back in the 2019-20 season, but they have since suffered four successive defeats to Les Gones in all competitions and will be battling fatigue as well as the history books this weekend.
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Team News
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Lyon have lost midfield enforcer Thiago Mendes to a two-match suspension following his 68th-minute red card in the loss to Metz, but Maxence Caqueret has made a welcome return to training on the back of extending his deal until 2026.
Sinaly Diomande and Rayan Cherki remain out of contention alongside Jason Denayer, but Damien Da Silva should be considered for some minutes either way after Jerome Boateng's half-time withdrawal last weekend.
Malo Gusto and Houssem Aouar's spots could also be at risk after Bosz made no fewer than four alterations at the break against Metz - one of which was Lucas Paqueta, but it is difficult to imagine the Brazilian losing his place.
Meanwhile, Nantes' two long-term absentees Pedro Chirivella and Charles Traore will not play again this season, but Kombouare's side are otherwise in good shape ahead of Saturday's clash.
Rotation should be on the cards given their packed week, as Quentin Merlin and Moses Simon both prepare to return to the left-hand side for Les Canaris, with Marcus Coco also returning to the right wing.
Despite his strike on Wednesday night, Coulibaly will likely make way for top scorer Randal Kolo Muani ahead of his free transfer to Eintracht Frankfurt at the end of the season.
Lyon possible starting lineup:
Lopes; Dubois, Da Silva, Lukeba, Emerson; Aouar, Ndombele; Tete, Paqueta, Toko Ekambi; Dembele
Nantes possible starting lineup:
Lafont; Corchia, Castelletto, Pallois, Merlin; Moutoussamy, Cyprien; Coco, Blas, Simon; Kolo Muani
We say: Lyon 2-2 Nantes
Goals are always on the menu when these two sides take to the field in Ligue 1, with Lyon always suspect defensively but boasting plenty of attacking talent ready to make up for the rearguard's mistakes.
While Nantes' busy week and undesirable away form will significantly impact their chances of victory, Kombouare's motivated side should have no problem adding a couple of strikes to their goals column and coming away with a hard-earned point.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lyon win with a probability of 65.48%. A draw had a probability of 19.2% and a win for Nantes had a probability of 15.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lyon win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.23%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.86%) and 1-0 (9.3%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.96%), while for a Nantes win it was 1-2 (4.32%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 3.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Lyon would win this match.
Top tip
Ben Knapton
