Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Aston Villa win with a probability of 37.66%. A win for Southampton had a probability of 36.34% and a draw had a probability of 26%.
The most likely scoreline for an Aston Villa win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.36%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.32%) and 0-2 (6.31%). The likeliest Southampton win was 1-0 (9.16%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.35%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 9.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Aston Villa in this match.