We said: Tottenham Hotspur 2-1 Arsenal
Results matter much more than performances do at this stage of the season, but Arsenal rode their luck against Man United, West Ham and the 10 men of Leeds for long periods, and that streak of fortune may run out in a fixture that has traditionally been unkind to them.
Arteta's side have not developed a ruthless streak to kill games off, whereas Tottenham will be buoyed by their stellar showing against Liverpool and should expose the Gunners' recent defensive lapses to keep the race for the top four alive that little bit longer.
Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Tottenham Hotspur win with a probability of 44.18%. A win for Arsenal had a probability of 29.92% and a draw had a probability of 25.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Tottenham Hotspur win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.64%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.02%) and 2-0 (7.79%). The likeliest Arsenal win was 0-1 (8.41%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.31%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 3.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Tottenham Hotspur would win this match.