Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Porto win with a probability of 75.79%. A draw had a probability of 16.2% and a win for Moreirense had a probability of 8.06%.
The most likely scoreline for a Porto win was 2-0 with a probability of 14.49%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (12.58%) and 3-0 (11.12%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.6%), while for a Moreirense win it was 0-1 (3.3%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with an 11.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Porto would win this match.