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Ligue 1 | Gameweek 35
May 1, 2021 at 4pm UK
Parc des Princes
Lens logo

PSG
2 - 1
Lens

Neymar (33'), Marquinhos (59'), Ganago (61')
Medina (66'), Sotoca (76'), Herrera (78'), Kehrer (89'), Marquinhos (90+1'), Verratti (90+4')
FT(HT: 1-0)

Preview: Paris Saint-Germain vs. Lens - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Ligue 1 clash between Paris Saint-Germain and Lens, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Paris Saint-Germain must quickly dust themselves down following their defeat to Manchester City as they prepare to welcome Lens to the Parc des Princes for Saturday's Ligue 1 fixture.

Les Parisiens could move back to the top of the table - for a few hours at least - with all three points, while Lens will aim to consolidate their hold on fifth spot.


Match preview

Paris Saint-Germain manager Mauricio Pochettino pictured on February 16, 2021© Reuters

Mauricio Pochettino is staring down the barrel of yet another heartbreaking result in the Champions League, as City's second-half display of dominance propelled them to a 2-1 semi-final first leg win on the Parisiens' turf in midweek.

Marquinhos's header gave PSG a deserved lead in the opening periods, but whatever Pep Guardiola said at half time clearly worked as City took all three points thanks to Kevin De Bruyne's fortunate effort and Riyad Mahrez's free kick - although Pochettino would have been infuriated to see the Algerian's effort slip through the PSG wall.

With their prospects of European silverware now hanging by a thread, there is even more pressure on the Ligue 1 champions to knock Lille off their perch and retain their crown, as second-placed PSG sit one point adrift of Les Dogues before the weekend's fixtures take place.

However, PSG have eased to three successive Ligue 1 wins over Strasbourg, Saint-Etienne and Metz in recent weeks - scoring at least three goals each time - and Pochettino's side could now string together a run of four consecutive league wins for the first time since November.

Defeat to City represented a fifth home loss in nine matches across all competitions for PSG, though, and with changes expected ahead of their trip to the Etihad, away-day specialists Lens can dare to dream of another historic triumph over the champions.

Lens head coach Franck Haise pictured in October 2020© Reuters

Franck Haise guided Lens to a 1-0 triumph over PSG in just their second game back in the big time, and Sang et Or have gone from strength to strength since putting an early dent in Les Parisiens' title hopes.

Indeed, Lens have strung together a 13-game unbeaten run in the top flight since suffering a 1-0 defeat to Nice on January 23 - the longest current streak in the division - and avoiding defeat at the Parc des Princes would see them set a new 21st century record for the longest unbeaten run by a newly-promoted side.

Haise's side have made a habit of winning one then drawing one in the top flight, and that streak continued with a 2-1 success over Nimes last Sunday, as Ignatius Ganago and Massadio Haidara struck either side of a Zinedine Ferhat penalty, and Lens held on despite playing the majority of the match with 10 men.

Lens could find themselves out of the European places if Marseille manage to get the better of Strasbourg on Friday evening, and a draw at the Parc des Princes would not be enough to see them usurp Les Olympiens in that scenario, so Haise's side must produce the first of three shock results before they take on Lille and Monaco in the final weeks.

Not since January 6 have Lens lost away from home - winning four and drawing four on the road since then - and given PSG's woes at the Parc des Princes, the Sang et Or faithful have every right to believe that lightning could strike twice against the champions.

Paris Saint-Germain Ligue 1 form:
  • L
  • W
  • L
  • W
  • W
  • W

Paris Saint-Germain form (all competitions):
  • W
  • L
  • W
  • W
  • W
  • L

Lens Ligue 1 form:
  • D
  • W
  • D
  • W
  • D
  • W



Team News

Paris Saint-Germain's (PSG) Kylian Mbappe celebrates scoring their first goal with teammates on April 10, 2021© Reuters

PSG recovered Kylian Mbappe, Marquinhos and Rafinha in time for their defeat to City, but the former has now joined Juan Bernat and Alexandre Letellier in the treatment room due to a calf issue - a worrying sight for Pochettino ahead of their second leg with City.

Idrissa Gueye will serve a suspension in next week's Champions League second leg after his red card on Wednesday, but he is available here and should earn a start seeing as he will enjoy a rest next week.

Pochettino could make significant alterations with the second leg in mind, meaning that Layvin Kurzawa, Julian Draxler, Pablo Sarabia and Mauro Icardi could earn recalls to the first XI on Saturday.

Lens left-back Issiaga Sylla starts a three-game suspension after his red card in the win over Nimes, while fellow defenders Loic Bade and Haidara will also serve bans for an accumulation of bookings.

Haise has therefore been left rather short on the defensive front, but Steven Fortes is back from his own suspension and should deputise for Bade, while Ismael Boura could start on the left with Sylla and Haidara unavailable.

Haise himself will return to the dugout after being suspended for the visit of Nimes, while Florian Sotoca, Clement Michelin and Cheick Doucoure are all back in training and could feature.

Gael Kakuta and Cheick Traore have recovered from COVID-19 and are in the squad, while Wuilker Farinez is expected to deputise in goal after Jean-Louis Leca was forced off injured last time out.

Paris Saint-Germain possible starting lineup:
Navas; Dagba, Kimpembe, Kehrer, Kurzawa; Gueye, Paredes; Sarabia, Rafinha, Neymar; Icardi

Lens possible starting lineup:
Farinez; Medina, Fortes, Gradit; Clauss, Cahuzac, Doucoure, Fofana, Boura; Sotoca, Ganago


SM words green background

We say: Paris Saint-Germain 2-1 Lens

PSG's underwhelming home form and Lens' hot streak on the road means that an away win is not beyond the realm of possibility, but a trio of suspended defenders is sure to hamper the visitors' aspirations of a famous triumph.

Pochettino's men must produce an immediate reaction and gain some momentum before next week's second leg with Man City, and while Lens should still give them a good run for their money, we are backing the champions to pick up three vital points.



Top tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting a home win in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Home Win:data



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Written by
Ben Knapton

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Paris Saint-Germain win with a probability of 61.5%. A draw had a probability of 20.6% and a win for Lens had a probability of 17.94%.

The most likely scoreline for a Paris Saint-Germain win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.94%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.67%) and 1-0 (9.32%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.58%), while for a Lens win it was 1-2 (4.92%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Paris Saint-Germain in this match.


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Game History

How you voted: PSG vs Lens

Paris Saint-Germain
77.5%
Draw
11.2%
Lens
11.2%
89
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Paris Saint-Germain's Kylian Mbappe celebrates scoring against Barcelona in the Champions League on March 10, 2021
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Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Paris Saint-GermainPSG16124044143040
2Marseille1593332181430
3MonacoMonaco1693426161030
4Lille1576225151027
5Lyon157442720725
6Nice156632819924
7Lens156631914524
8Auxerre156362323021
9Toulouse156361717021
10Reims155552018220
11Brest156182427-319
12Rennes155282020017
13StrasbourgStrasbourg154562527-217
14NantesNantes153571724-714
15Angers153481426-1213
16Saint-EtienneSt Etienne1541101234-2213
17Le HavreLe Havre1540111129-1812
18Montpellier HSCMontpellier1523101538-239


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