Real Madrid will be looking to make the perfect start to their 2021-22 La Liga campaign when they head to Estadio de Mendizorroza on Saturday night to face Alaves.
Los Blancos finished second behind Atletico Madrid in Spain's top flight last term, while Alaves ended the season in 16th position, just four points outside of the relegation zone.
Match preview
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Alaves ensured that they would play La Liga football for a sixth straight season courtesy of a 16th-place finish in Spain's top flight last term, but it was far from a comfortable campaign for the Basque outfit.
A record of nine wins, 11 draws and 18 defeats from 38 matches saw them collect 38 points, which left them just four points above the relegation zone, and in truth, it would not be a surprise to see the team in and around the bottom three towards the end of the 2021-22 campaign.
Javier Calleja's side have played a lot of football this summer, taking part in seven friendlies, including a 1-0 victory over Levante in their final pre-season match on August 6.
Alaves have also been busy in terms of incomings, with Toni Moya, Taichi Hara, Ivan Martin, Manu Garcia, Florian Lejeune, Mamadou Loum and Facundo Pellistri all arriving at the club either on permanent deals or on loan, with Pellistri returning from Manchester United after a successful spell last term.
El Glorioso picked up 24 points from their 19 home league matches last season but will be welcoming a Real Madrid side that had the best away record in Spain's top flight in 2020-21, and Carlo Ancelotti will be desperate to pick up all three points on his return to the Los Blancos dugout.
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Real Madrid were criticised for long stages of last season, and the fact that they ended the campaign without winning one of the three major trophies on offer - Copa del Rey, La Liga, Champions League - was certainly a disappointment.
However, the capital giants reached the semi-finals of the Champions League and finished second in La Liga, just two points behind champions Atletico Madrid; Los Blancos only lost four league matches last term but three of those arrived before the end of November, which ultimately cost them.
Ancelotti is back for a second spell at the helm, having taken the place of Zinedine Zidane; the Italian was previously in charge between 2013 and 2015, winning the Copa del Rey, Champions League, UEFA Super Cup and Club World Cup during a successful period.
The club's financial problems mean that it has been a quiet summer, with David Alaba their only incoming, but both Sergio Ramos and Raphael Varane have been allowed to move on, meaning that there will be a new look to the team during the 2021-22 campaign.
Real Madrid have only actually played two pre-season friendlies, losing to Rangers before drawing with AC Milan, and they will be missing a number of important players on Saturday night, meaning that it could be an uncomfortable start to the campaign for the Spanish giants.
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Team News
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Alaves have both signed and released a number of players this summer, but there is expected to be a familiar look to the starting XI on the opening weekend of the campaign.
Joselu and Lucas Perez could get the nod in the final third of the field, leaving new signing Hara on the bench, while Pellistri might also be among the substitutes from the start of the contest.
New signing Loum had been in line to feature in the middle of the park, but the 24-year-old has a thigh problem, meaning that he could ultimately miss out on the chance to face Los Blancos.
As for Real Madrid, Toni Kroos, Ferland Mendy, Dani Carvajal, Alvaro Odriozola and Dani Ceballos are all definitely unavailable, while Eden Hazard faces a battle to overcome a hamstring problem.
Karim Benzema is back training with the Spanish giants after recovering from coronavirus, but it seems likely that the Frenchman will start on the bench.
As a result, there could be a spot in the final third of the field for Luka Jovic, with Rodrygo and Vinicius Junior potentially operating either side of the Serbian, while Kroos's absence could open the door for Federico Valverde to join Casemiro and Luka Modric in the middle of the park.
Alaba is in line to make his debut in the middle of the defence, and Nacho and Eder Militao are battling to get the nod alongside the Austria international.
Alaves possible starting lineup:
Pacheco; Aguirregabiria, Laguardia, Lejeune, Duarte; Pons, Moya, Pina, Rioja; Joselu, Perez
Real Madrid possible starting lineup:
Courtois; Vazquez, Nacho, Alaba, Marcelo; Modric, Casemiro, Valverde; Rodrygo, Jovic, Vinicius
We say: Alaves 1-2 Real Madrid
This is far from a straightforward match for Real Madrid, who have not exactly had the perfect pre-season. Alaves, on the other hand, have played a lot of football over the summer and should be ahead in terms of fitness.
That said, it might be a match where the gap in quality becomes clear in the second half, and we are expecting Ancelotti's side to shade a tight contest on Saturday night.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Real Madrid win with a probability of 61.8%. A draw had a probability of 21.4% and a win for Alaves had a probability of 16.84%.
The most likely scoreline for a Real Madrid win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.18%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.91%) and 1-2 (9.91%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.14%), while for an Alaves win it was 1-0 (5.2%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 3.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Real Madrid would win this match.
