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Sao Paulo
Brasileiro | Gameweek 27
Oct 19, 2021 at 12am UK
Estadio do Morumbi
Corinthians

Sao Paulo
1 - 0
Corinthians

Calleri (7')
Liziero (43'), Neves (61'), Arboleda (62')
FT(HT: 1-0)

Victor (43'), Guedes (82')

Preview: Sao Paulo vs. Corinthians - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Monday's Brasileiro clash between Sao Paulo and Corinthians, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

The Classico Majestoso takes place on Tuesday when Corinthians make the short trip across the city to face rivals Sao Paulo at the Estadio do Morumbi, in their second meeting this season.

Sao Paulo are in the hunt for a Copa Sudamericana spot, currently sitting in 13th in the Brasileiro just outside the top 12 on goal difference, while Corinthians have aspirations to finish this campaign securing a Copa Libertadores place, currently sitting in sixth.


Match preview

Sao Paulo's Luan celebrates scoring their first goal against Palmeiras, pictured on August 10, 2021© Reuters

Hernan Crespo's side would have broken into the top 12 by this stage of the season had they turned some of their most recent draws into three points, having picked up just one point from each of their last six games.

During those six games, three outings have ended as goalless draws and the other three matches have concluded in 1-1 draws, and that continued most recently against Ceara.

Sao Paulo fell behind last time out but Jonathan Calleri rescued a point for the home side when he equalised in the 52nd minute; however, Crespo may have felt his side could have taken more points from that game having registered eight shots on target.

Only Cuiaba have drawn as many matches as Sao Paulo this season, but the Tricolor have continued their chase for a top-12 finish and, with 12 Brasileiro matches still to play, they have plenty of time to leapfrog some of the teams above them.

Crespo's team have only lost twice at home this season and are currently on a 10-game unbeaten run in all competitions at the Estadio do Morumbi, suggesting that the hosts will be a difficult outfit to beat on Tuesday.

Corinthians' Victor Cantillo celebrates scoring their second goal with teammates on October 6, 2021© Reuters

The team faced with that challenge is Sao Paulo's city rivals Corinthians, who have only lost once in their last 12 league outings, and they bounced back from that defeat with a 1-0 win last time out.

On Thursday, Sylvinho's side welcomed Fluminense to the Neo Quimica Arena and Gabriel Pereira sealed the three points for the home side with his second goal of this Brasileiro season.

That 69th-minute strike was the only shot that Corinthians managed on target, but that was enough to ensure the side avoided back-to-back defeats for the first time since July.

The Timao are at risk of dropping out of the Copa Libertadores qualification spots as Internacional are only one point behind them and have a game in hand on sixth spot, meaning that Corinthians need to keeping winning to not allow the chasing pack any more advantage.

In the reverse fixture earlier in the season, Corinthians and Sao Paulo played out a goalless draw in quite an evenly-matched contest, but historically Corinthians have had the edge over their rivals in the Classico Majestoso.

Sao Paulo Brasileiro form:
  • D
  • D
  • D
  • D
  • D
  • D

Corinthians Brasileiro form:
  • D
  • W
  • D
  • W
  • L
  • W



Team News

Corinthians' Willian pictured on October 6, 2021© Reuters

Sao Paulo centre-back Miranda picked up his sixth yellow card of the league season on Thursday, meaning that he is suspended for Tuesday's derby fixture.

Other absentees for the home side will include Walce, Igor Vinicius, William da Silva, Emiliano Rigoni and Antonio Galeano, who are all sidelined due to injury.

Considering that Crespo's side have only scored three goals in their last six outings, goalkeeper Tiago Volpi has been vital in ensuring his side did not lose any of those matches, and he is still in the hunt for the Golden Gloves at the end of this season.

The visitors were dealt a big blow on Thursday when Willian was forced off the pitch just nine minutes into that match against Fluminense, and he will be absent from the matchday squad for Corinthians' next few games.

Gustavo Mosquito has not started for Sylvinho's side since 13 September, but the 24-year-old is expected to be given his opportunity from the first whistle on Tuesday as he replaces Willian in the starting lineup.

Midfielder Roni is also unavailable for selection after picking up a knee injury last month, but Victor Cantillo, Renato Augusto and Giuliano will continue as the midfield trio on Tuesday.

Sao Paulo possible starting lineup:
Volpi; Reinaldo, Leo, Alves, Orejuela; Lizeiro; Sara, Benitez, Gomes; Calleri, Neves

Corinthians possible starting lineup:
Cassio; Santos, Gil, Victor, Piton; Cantillo; Mosquito, Augusto, Giuliano, Pereira; Guedes


SM words green background

We say: Sao Paulo 0-1 Corinthians

Sao Paulo have not been involved in very high-scoring games recently, and with the hosts having not won a game since last month, Corinthians should enter Tuesday's derby with some confidence to take advantage of that.

After a good victory against a fellow top 12 side last time out, another three points for the visitors will help them keep the pressure on Internacional to catch them.



Top tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting a double chance bet on a home win or draw in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Home/Draw:data



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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sao Paulo win with a probability of 44.04%. A draw had a probability of 28.7% and a win for Corinthians had a probability of 27.21%.

The most likely scoreline for a Sao Paulo win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.2%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.94%) and 2-1 (8.25%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (13.11%), while for a Corinthians win it was 0-1 (10.42%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 14.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Sao Paulo in this match.


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Game History

How you voted: Sao Paulo vs Corinthians

Sao Paulo
31.6%
Draw
23.7%
Corinthians
44.7%
38
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Corinthians players huddle before the match on August 1, 2021
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TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Botafogo31197549262364
2PalmeirasPalmeiras32187753272661
3FortalezaFortaleza32179644321260
4FlamengoFlamengo31167850371355
5InternacionalInternacional311411642281453
6Sao Paulo31156104233951
7Bahia31137114237546
8Cruzeiro31128113633344
9Vasco da GamaVasco31127123643-743
10Atletico Mineiro30101194245-341
11Gremio32116153841-339
12Vitoria32115163746-938
13Corinthians32911123740-338
14Fluminense32107152834-637
15CriciumaCriciuma31910123844-637
16BragantinoBragantino32811133440-635
17Athletico ParanaenseAthletico PR3197153339-634
18JuventudeJuventude32810143851-1334
19Cuiaba32610162541-1628
20Atletico GoianienseAtletico GO3157192350-2722


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