Serie A

Serie A | Gameweek 15

Dec 9, 2023 at 5pm UK

Gewiss Stadium

Atalanta
3 - 2
AC Milan

Lookman (38', 55'), Muriel (90+5')
Ederson (72')

FT(HT: 1-1)

Giroud (45+3'), Jovic (80')
Reijnders (71'), Calabria (80'), Jovic (88'), Bennacer (90+2')
Calabria (90+3')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Serie A clash between Atalanta BC and AC Milan, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Atalanta BC

All competitions

Serie A

Last Game: Torino 3-0 Atalanta
Monday, December 4 at 7.45pm in Serie A

Goals
for

Top scorers

AC Milan

All competitions

Serie A

Last Game: AC Milan 3-1 Frosinone
Saturday, December 2 at 7.45pm in Serie A

Goals
for

Top scorers

We said: Atalanta BC 1-1 AC Milan

Though Milan have had the edge over Atalanta in recent years, both teams are hampered by absences at the moment and may ultimately settle for a point. The hosts have been struggling to keep their back door shut, while the Rossoneri remain some way short of their best. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atalanta BC win with a probability of 46.69%. A win for AC Milan had a probability of 27.58% and a draw had a probability of 25.7%.

The most likely scoreline for an Atalanta BC win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.17%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.21%) and 2-0 (8.42%). The likeliest AC Milan win was 0-1 (8.13%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.23%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Atalanta BC would win this match.

Result
Atalanta BC	Draw	AC Milan
46.69% ( 1.62)	25.73% ( -0.11)	27.58% ( -1.51)

Both teams to score 51.77% (

-0.65)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

48.16% (

-0.37)

51.84% (

0.37)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

26.4% (

-0.32)

73.59% (

0.32)

Atalanta BC Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

77.81% (

0.59)

22.19% (

-0.59)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

44.4% (

0.87)

55.6% (

-0.88)

AC Milan Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

66.54% (

-1.34)

33.46% (

1.34)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

29.91% (

-1.5)

70.09% (

1.49)

Score Analysis

Atalanta BC 46.68%

AC Milan 27.58%

Draw 25.72%

Atalanta BC	Draw	AC Milan
1-0 @ 11.17% ( 0.35) 2-1 @ 9.21% ( 0.12) 2-0 @ 8.42% ( 0.41) 3-1 @ 4.62% ( 0.14) 3-0 @ 4.22% ( 0.28) 3-2 @ 2.53% ( -0.01) 4-1 @ 1.74% ( 0.08) 4-0 @ 1.59% ( 0.13) 4-2 @ 0.95% ( 0.01) Other @ 2.22% Total : 46.68%	1-1 @ 12.23% ( -0.06) 0-0 @ 7.43% ( 0.11) 2-2 @ 5.04% ( -0.12) 3-3 @ 0.92% ( -0.04) Other @ 0.1% Total : 25.72%	0-1 @ 8.13% ( -0.18) 1-2 @ 6.7% ( -0.28) 0-2 @ 4.45% ( -0.27) 1-3 @ 2.45% ( -0.2) 2-3 @ 1.84% ( -0.12) 0-3 @ 1.62% ( -0.16) Other @ 2.39% Total : 27.58%