Serie A

Serie A | Gameweek 23

Feb 4, 2024 at 5pm UK

Gewiss Stadium

Atalanta
3 - 1
Lazio

Pasalic (16'), De Ketelaere (43' pen., 76')
Pasalic (9'), Piero Gasperini (10'), Ederson (78')

FT(HT: 2-0)

Immobile (84' pen.)
Alberto (45+1'), Anderson (45'), Rovella (47')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Serie A clash between Atalanta BC and Lazio, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Atalanta BC

All competitions

Serie A

Last Game: Atalanta 2-0 Udinese
Saturday, January 27 at 2pm in Serie A

Goals
for

Top scorers

Lazio

All competitions

Serie A

Last Game: Lazio 0-0 Napoli
Sunday, January 28 at 5pm in Serie A

Goals
for

Top scorers

We said: Atalanta BC 1-0 Lazio

One goal could win this game, as two of Serie A's meanest defences in 2024 meet. Either a moment of magic or madness may prove decisive, with Atalanta's fine home record making them slim favourites to pull further clear of Lazio in the standings. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atalanta BC win with a probability of 61.56%. A draw had a probability of 22% and a win for Lazio had a probability of 16.4%.

The most likely scoreline for an Atalanta BC win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.43%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.6%) and 2-1 (9.77%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.47%), while for a Lazio win it was 0-1 (5.61%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 6.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Atalanta BC would win this match.

Result
Atalanta BC	Draw	Lazio
61.56% ( 0.22)	22.04% ( 0.01)	16.4% ( -0.23)

Both teams to score 48.12% (

-0.49)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

50.86% (

-0.41)

49.14% (

0.41)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

28.79% (

-0.37)

71.21% (

0.37)

Atalanta BC Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

84.54% (

-0.06)

15.46% (

0.06)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

55.68% (

-0.12)

44.32% (

0.12)

Lazio Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

56.92% (

-0.53)

43.07% (

0.53)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

20.65% (

-0.45)

79.35% (

0.45)

Score Analysis

Atalanta BC 61.55%

Lazio 16.4%

Draw 22.04%

Atalanta BC	Draw	Lazio
1-0 @ 12.43% ( 0.18) 2-0 @ 11.6% ( 0.14) 2-1 @ 9.77% ( -0.03) 3-0 @ 7.22% ( 0.07) 3-1 @ 6.08% ( -0.03) 4-0 @ 3.37% ( 0.03) 4-1 @ 2.84% ( -0.02) 3-2 @ 2.56% ( -0.05) 5-0 @ 1.26% ( 0.01) 4-2 @ 1.2% ( -0.03) 5-1 @ 1.06% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.15% Total : 61.55%	1-1 @ 10.47% 0-0 @ 6.66% ( 0.11) 2-2 @ 4.12% ( -0.07) Other @ 0.79% Total : 22.04%	0-1 @ 5.61% ( 0.01) 1-2 @ 4.41% ( -0.07) 0-2 @ 2.36% ( -0.03) 1-3 @ 1.24% ( -0.04) 2-3 @ 1.16% ( -0.04) Other @ 1.63% Total : 16.4%