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Serie A | Gameweek 7
Oct 6, 2024 at 7.45pm UK
Stadio Artemio Franchi
Milan logo

Fiorentina
2 - 1
AC Milan

Adli (35'), Gudmundsson (73')
Dodo (8'), Bove (90+5')
Palladino (86')
FT(HT: 1-0)
Pulisic (60')
Tomori (24'), Fonseca (32'), Morata (43'), Reijnders (72')
Hernandez (90+6')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Serie A clash between Fiorentina and AC Milan, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Fiorentina 2-0 New Saints
Thursday, October 3 at 8pm in Conference League
Last Game: B. Leverkusen 1-0 AC Milan
Tuesday, October 1 at 8pm in Champions League

We said: Fiorentina 1-1 AC Milan

Though Milan's domestic form is on the rise, Fiorentina are rarely beaten on Tuscan turf and should be able to resist their visitors from the second city. The Rossoneri are still vulnerable at the back, so the Viola can score at least once and add another point to their modest Serie A tally. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fiorentina win with a probability of 59.11%. A draw had a probability of 21% and a win for AC Milan had a probability of 19.84%.

The most likely scoreline for a Fiorentina win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.91%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.02%) and 1-0 (8.84%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.71%), while for an AC Milan win it was 1-2 (5.33%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Fiorentina in this match.

Result
FiorentinaDrawAC Milan
59.11% (0.43 0.43) 21.05% (-0.077000000000002 -0.08) 19.84% (-0.353 -0.35)
Both teams to score 57.99% (-0.33600000000001 -0.34)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
60.72% (-0.159 -0.16)39.28% (0.158 0.16)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
38.38% (-0.169 -0.17)61.62% (0.167 0.17)
Fiorentina Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
87% (0.073999999999998 0.07)13% (-0.074999999999999 -0.07)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
60.48% (0.154 0.15)39.51% (-0.15499999999999 -0.15)
AC Milan Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
66.65% (-0.444 -0.44)33.35% (0.442 0.44)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
30.03% (-0.487 -0.49)69.97% (0.485 0.48)
Score Analysis
    Fiorentina 59.11%
    AC Milan 19.84%
    Draw 21.05%
FiorentinaDrawAC Milan
2-1 @ 9.91% (0.010999999999999 0.01)
2-0 @ 9.02% (0.118 0.12)
1-0 @ 8.84% (0.090999999999999 0.09)
3-1 @ 6.74% (0.027 0.03)
3-0 @ 6.14% (0.098 0.1)
3-2 @ 3.7% (-0.03 -0.03)
4-1 @ 3.44% (0.023 0.02)
4-0 @ 3.13% (0.059 0.06)
4-2 @ 1.89% (-0.01 -0.01)
5-1 @ 1.4% (0.013 0.01)
5-0 @ 1.28% (0.028 0.03)
Other @ 3.62%
Total : 59.11%
1-1 @ 9.71% (-0.016999999999999 -0.02)
2-2 @ 5.44% (-0.059 -0.06)
0-0 @ 4.33% (0.032 0.03)
3-3 @ 1.36% (-0.027 -0.03)
Other @ 0.21%
Total : 21.05%
1-2 @ 5.33% (-0.073 -0.07)
0-1 @ 4.76% (-0.021999999999999 -0.02)
0-2 @ 2.61% (-0.044 -0.04)
2-3 @ 1.99% (-0.046 -0.05)
1-3 @ 1.95% (-0.051 -0.05)
0-3 @ 0.96% (-0.027 -0.03)
Other @ 2.23%
Total : 19.84%

How you voted: Fiorentina vs AC Milan

Fiorentina
22.8%
Draw
25.7%
AC Milan
51.5%
167
Head to Head
Mar 30, 2024 7.45pm
Gameweek 30
Fiorentina
1-2
AC Milan
Duncan (50')
Biraghi (13'), Martinez (24')
Loftus-Cheek (47'), Leao (53')
Thiaw (21'), Tomori (89'), Loftus-Cheek (90+3')
Nov 25, 2023 7.45pm
Gameweek 13
AC Milan
1-0
Fiorentina
Hernandez (45+2' pen.)
Tomori (56'), Pioli (77')

Arthur (12'), Parisi (45+1')
Mar 4, 2023 7.45pm
Gameweek 25
Fiorentina
2-1
AC Milan
Gonzalez (49' pen.), Jovic (87')
Hernandez (90+5')
Nov 13, 2022 5pm
Gameweek 15
AC Milan
2-1
Fiorentina
Leao (2'), Milenkovic (90+2' og.)
Barak (28')
May 1, 2022 2pm
Gameweek 35
AC Milan
1-0
Fiorentina
Leao (82')
Bennacer (88')

Maleh (2'), Venuti (42'), Martinez (72')
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
FT
Broncos
27-34
Chargers
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Atalanta BCAtalanta16121339172237
2Napoli16112324111335
3Inter Milan15104140152534
4Fiorentina1594228111731
5Lazio1610153023731
6Juventus16610026121428
7AC Milan167542516926
8Bologna156722118325
9Udinese166281925-620
10Empoli164751416-219
11Torino165471720-319
12Roma164481823-516
13Genoa163761324-1116
14Lecce164481027-1716
15Parma163672328-515
16Como163671828-1015
17Hellas VeronaHellas Verona1750122140-1915
18CagliariCagliari163581526-1114
19Monza161781421-710
20VeneziaVenezia1624101529-1410


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