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World Cup
Japan national football team
World Cup Qualifying - Asia | Third Round
Oct 15, 2024 at 11.35am UK
Saitama Stadium 2002
Australia national football team

Japan
vs.
Australia

FT

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's World Cup Qualifying - Asia clash between Japan and Australia, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Japan

All competitions
Last Game: Saudi Arabia 0-2 Japan
Thursday, October 10 at 7pm in World Cup Qualifying - Asia
Next Game: Indonesia vs. Japan
Friday, November 15 at 12am in World Cup Qualifying - Asia

Australia

All competitions
Last Game: Australia 3-1 China
Thursday, October 10 at 10.10am in World Cup Qualifying - Asia
Next Game: Australia vs. Saudi Arabia
Thursday, November 14 at 12am in World Cup Qualifying - Asia

We said: Japan 2-0 Australia

 Every foe that has stood in Japan's way so far has left with their tails tucked between their legs, and a similar tale should unfold on Tuesday, in spite of Australia's superior quality compared to some of their Group C rivals. Despite their statement win in midweek, the visitors are still finding their feet under Popovic and do not pack as much of a punch up front as their unblemished hosts. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Japan win with a probability of 53.66%. A win for Australia has a probability of 23.73% and a draw has a probability of 22.6%.

The most likely scoreline for a Japan win is 2-1 with a probability of 9.78%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 1-0 (8.97%) and 2-0 (8.37%). The likeliest Australia win is 1-2 (6.13%), while for a drawn scoreline it is 1-1 (10.48%).

Result
JapanDrawAustralia
53.66% (-9.429 -9.43) 22.61% (3.087 3.09) 23.73% (6.341 6.34)
Both teams to score 58.25% (-0.54 -0.54)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
58.45% (-5.476 -5.48)41.55% (5.475 5.48)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
36.05% (-5.771 -5.77)63.95% (5.77 5.77)
Japan Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
84.52% (-4.559 -4.56)15.48% (4.557 4.56)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
55.64% (-9.252 -9.25)44.35% (9.252 9.25)
Australia Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
68.92% (2.921 2.92)31.08% (-2.92 -2.92)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
32.6% (3.281 3.28)67.4% (-3.281 -3.28)
Score Analysis
    Japan 53.66%
    Australia 23.73%
    Draw 22.6%
JapanDrawAustralia
2-1 @ 9.78% (-0.037999999999998 -0.04)
1-0 @ 8.97% (0.752 0.75)
2-0 @ 8.37% (-0.732 -0.73)
3-1 @ 6.09% (-1.166 -1.17)
3-0 @ 5.21% (-1.514 -1.51)
3-2 @ 3.56% (-0.355 -0.36)
4-1 @ 2.84% (-1.175 -1.18)
4-0 @ 2.43% (-1.292 -1.29)
4-2 @ 1.66% (-0.506 -0.51)
5-1 @ 1.06% (-0.719 -0.72)
5-0 @ 0.91% (-0.742 -0.74)
Other @ 2.79%
Total : 53.66%
1-1 @ 10.48% (1.61 1.61)
2-2 @ 5.72% (0.42 0.42)
0-0 @ 4.81% (1.097 1.1)
3-3 @ 1.39% (-0.022 -0.02)
Other @ 0.21%
Total : 22.6%
1-2 @ 6.13% (1.344 1.34)
0-1 @ 5.62% (1.616 1.62)
0-2 @ 3.29% (1.124 1.12)
1-3 @ 2.39% (0.667 0.67)
2-3 @ 2.23% (0.322 0.32)
0-3 @ 1.28% (0.503 0.5)
Other @ 2.8%
Total : 23.73%

How you voted: Japan vs Australia

Japan
75.5%
Draw
15.9%
Australia
8.6%
151
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