World Cup

World Cup Qualifying - Africa | Group Stage

Jun 11, 2024 at 2pm UK

FNB Stadium

Madagascar
0 - 0
Mali

Amada (39'), Patrick Laiton (90+8')
Demeleon (16')

Fofana (61')

Preview

Data Analysis

Lineups

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Monday's World Cup Qualifying - Africa clash between Madagascar and Mali, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Madagascar

All competitions

World Cup Qualifying

Last Game: Madagascar 2-1 Comoros
Friday, June 7 at 5pm in World Cup Qualifying - Africa

Current Group B Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Madagascar	3	3	7
2	Nigeria	3	0	6
3	Guinea	3	1	4
4	Burundi	3	-4	0

Mali

All competitions

World Cup Qualifying

Last Game: Mali 1-2 Ghana
Thursday, June 6 at 8pm in World Cup Qualifying - Africa

Current Group E Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Mali	3	2	5
2	South Africa	3	2	4
3	Namibia	3	-3	4
4	Tunisia	3	-1	2

Having been steady in World Cup qualifying for the 2022 finals before ultimately losing out to Tunisia, Mali have struggled for consistency in performances and results this time. That should be music to the ears of Madagascar, who have scored five times in their last two games in qualifying. While success for the hosts will not be surprising, the Eagles could benefit from not playing under home pressure in Johannesburg, possibly seeing them nick a point on Monday afternoon. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mali win with a probability of 46.8%. A draw had a probability of 29.7% and a win for Madagascar had a probability of 23.47%.

The most likely scoreline for a Mali win was 0-1 with a probability of 16.53%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.14%) and 1-2 (7.89%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (13.47%), while for a Madagascar win it was 1-0 (10.46%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 13.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a draw in this match.

Result
Madagascar	Draw	Mali
23.47% ( -0.35)	29.73% ( 0.02)	46.8% ( 0.33)

Both teams to score 38.19% (

-0.32)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

32.46% (

-0.25)

67.54% (

0.25)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

14.37% (

-0.16)

85.63% (

0.17)

Madagascar Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

54.03% (

-0.49)

45.97% (

0.5)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

18.3% (

-0.38)

81.7% (

0.39)

Mali Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

70.7% (

0.05)

29.3% (

-0.05)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

34.73% (

0.06)

65.27% (

-0.06)

Score Analysis

Madagascar 23.46%

Mali 46.79%

Draw 29.73%

Madagascar	Draw	Mali
1-0 @ 10.46% ( -0.05) 2-1 @ 4.99% ( -0.09) 2-0 @ 4.07% ( -0.08) 3-1 @ 1.29% ( -0.04) 3-0 @ 1.05% ( -0.03) Other @ 1.59% Total : 23.46%	0-0 @ 13.47% ( 0.13) 1-1 @ 12.85% ( -0.04) 2-2 @ 3.07% ( -0.05) Other @ 0.35% Total : 29.73%	0-1 @ 16.53% ( 0.17) 0-2 @ 10.14% ( 0.12) 1-2 @ 7.89% ( -0.02) 0-3 @ 4.15% ( 0.06) 1-3 @ 3.23% ( -0) 0-4 @ 1.27% ( 0.02) 2-3 @ 1.25% ( -0.02) 1-4 @ 0.99% ( 0) Other @ 1.33% Total : 46.79%