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NAC Breda
Eredivisie Promotion Playoffs | Third Round | 1st Leg
May 28, 2024 at 7pm UK
Rat Verlegh Stadion
Excelsior

NAC Breda
6 - 2
Excelsior

Omgba (12'), Janosek (39' pen.), Van den Bergh (42'), Koscelnik (74'), Mar Omarsson (78', 90+4')
Lucassen (17'), van de Merbel (45+4'), Staring (52')
FT(HT: 3-2)
Duijvestijn (25'), Parrott (45+6' pen.)
Zagre (15')
Duijvestijn (38'), Zagre (72')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's Eredivisie Promotion Playoffs clash between NAC Breda and SBV Excelsior, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Emmen 0-3 NAC Breda
Saturday, May 25 at 3.30pm in Eredivisie Promotion Playoffs
Last Game: Excelsior 7-1 ADO Den Haag
Saturday, May 25 at 7pm in Eredivisie Promotion Playoffs

We said: NAC Breda 1-2 SBV Excelsior

With both sides heading into this first-leg meeting enjoying a goal-laden spell, we are anticipating an exciting matchup at Rat Verlegh Stadion on Tuesday night. NAC Breda have been mightily impressive recently, but Excelsior's Eredivisie quality will provide a considerable test, and we feel that the visitors will take a narrow lead into next weekend's second leg. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a NAC Breda win with a probability of 52.16%. A win for SBV Excelsior had a probability of 24.96% and a draw had a probability of 22.9%.

The most likely scoreline for a NAC Breda win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.71%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.8%) and 2-0 (8.07%). The likeliest SBV Excelsior win was 1-2 (6.37%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.58%). The actual scoreline of 6-2 was predicted with a 0.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that NAC Breda would win this match.

Result
NAC BredaDrawSBV Excelsior
52.16%22.87%24.96%
Both teams to score 58.78%
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
58.5%41.5%
Over 3.5Under 3.5
36.1%63.9%
NAC Breda Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
84.02%15.97%
Over 1.5Under 1.5
54.72%45.27%
SBV Excelsior Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
69.96%30.04%
Over 1.5Under 1.5
33.83%66.16%
Score Analysis
    NAC Breda 52.16%
    SBV Excelsior 24.96%
    Draw 22.86%
NAC BredaDrawSBV Excelsior
2-1 @ 9.71%
1-0 @ 8.8%
2-0 @ 8.07%
3-1 @ 5.94%
3-0 @ 4.94%
3-2 @ 3.57%
4-1 @ 2.72%
4-0 @ 2.26%
4-2 @ 1.64%
5-1 @ 1%
Other @ 3.52%
Total : 52.16%
1-1 @ 10.58%
2-2 @ 5.84%
0-0 @ 4.8%
3-3 @ 1.43%
Other @ 0.22%
Total : 22.86%
1-2 @ 6.37%
0-1 @ 5.77%
0-2 @ 3.47%
1-3 @ 2.55%
2-3 @ 2.34%
0-3 @ 1.39%
Other @ 3.08%
Total : 24.96%

How you voted: Winner SF2 vs Winner SF1

Winner Semi-final 2
37.7%
Draw
18.9%
Winner Semi-final 1
43.4%
53
Head to Head
May 6, 2022 7pm
Gameweek 38
Excelsior
2-2
NAC Breda
Dallinga (45+1'), Niemeijer (48')
Driouech (71')
Velanas (10'), Malone (90+4')
Banzuzi (65'), Velanas (71')
Oct 1, 2021 7pm
Gameweek 9
NAC Breda
4-1
Excelsior
Haye (45+1'), El Yaakoubi (71' og.), Seuntjens (85'), De Rooij (87')
Velanas (19'), Haye (35')
Duku (64')
Nieuwpoort (45+1')
Apr 23, 2021 5.45pm
Gameweek 35
NAC Breda
1-2
Excelsior
El Allouchi (45' pen.)
Adilehou (15')
Niemeijer (55', 60')
Mendes Moreira (75'), Skogen (77')
Jan 3, 2021 11.15am
Gameweek 18
Excelsior
0-3
NAC Breda
Fiorini (17'), De Rooij (44'), Bilate (86')
van Hooijdonk (41'), Schouten (86')
Jan 31, 2020 7pm
Gameweek 24
Excelsior
2-2
NAC Breda
Vloet (30'), Bruins (73' pen.)
rhs 2.0
Euro 2024 fixtures header
Sunday, June 23
 
8pm
Monday, June 24
 
8pm
 
8pm
Tuesday, June 25
 
5pm
 
5pm
 
8pm
 
8pm
Wednesday, June 26
 
5pm
 
5pm
 
8pm
 
8pm
Saturday, June 29
Sunday, June 30
Monday, July 1
Tuesday, July 2
Friday, July 5
Saturday, July 6
Tuesday, July 9
Wednesday, July 10
Sunday, July 14
Tables header RHS

Group A

TeamPWDLPTS
Q Germany Germany22006
2 Switzerland Switzerland21104
3 Scotland flag Scotland20111
4 Hungary Hungary20020

Group B

TeamPWDLPTS
Q Spain Spain22006
2 Italy Italy21013
3 Albania national flag Albania20111
4 Croatia Croatia20111

Group C

TeamPWDLPTS
1 England flag England21104
2 Denmark Denmark20202
3 Slovenia Slovenia20202
4 Serbia Serbia20111

Group D

TeamPWDLPTS
1 Netherlands Netherlands21104
2 France France21104
3 Austria Austria21013
4 Poland Poland20020

Group E

TeamPWDLPTS
1 Romania Romania21013
2 Belgium Belgium21013
3 Slovakia Slovakia21013
4 Ukraine Ukraine21013

Group F

TeamPWDLPTS
Q Portugal Portugal22006
2 Turkey Turkey21013
3 Czech Republic Czech Republic20111
4 Georgia Georgia20111


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