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Bundesliga | Gameweek 20
Feb 1, 2025 at 2.30pm UK
Allianz Arena

Bayern
4 - 3
Holstein Kiel

Musiala (19'), Kane (45+3', 46'), Gnabry (54')
Laimer (78')
FT(HT: 2-0)
Porath (62'), Skrzybski (90+1', 90+3')
Zec (81')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Bundesliga clash between Bayern Munich and Holstein Kiel, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Bayern 3-1 Slovan Bratislava
Wednesday, January 29 at 8pm in Champions League
Last Game: Wolfsburg 2-2 Holstein Kiel
Friday, January 24 at 7.30pm in Bundesliga

We said: Bayern Munich 6-2 Holstein Kiel

Bayern have been outstanding in front of goal all season, and they should be confident of adding significantly to their tally on Saturday. However, while the visitors have been poor defensively in recent weeks, they have found form in the final third and may pose some problems for the Bavarians. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bayern Munich win with a probability of 86.48%. A draw had a probability of 8.8% and a win for Holstein Kiel had a probability of 4.76%.

The most likely scoreline for a Bayern Munich win was 3-0 with a probability of 9.66%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 4-0 (8.48%) and 2-0 (8.25%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (3.77%), while for a Holstein Kiel win it was 1-2 (1.51%). The actual scoreline of 4-3 was predicted with a 0.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Bayern Munich would win this match.

Result
Bayern MunichDrawHolstein Kiel
86.48% (0.268 0.27) 8.75% (-0.127 -0.13) 4.76% (-0.144 -0.14)
Both teams to score 53.52% (-0.565 -0.56)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
80.44% (-0.076999999999998 -0.08)19.55% (0.073 0.07)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
62.54% (-0.11000000000001 -0.11)37.46% (0.107 0.11)
Bayern Munich Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
97.01% (0.019999999999996 0.02)2.98% (-0.023 -0.02)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
86.54% (0.073999999999998 0.07)13.46% (-0.078000000000001 -0.08)
Holstein Kiel Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
55.17% (-0.596 -0.6)44.83% (0.593 0.59)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
19.2% (-0.48 -0.48)80.8% (0.47800000000001 0.48)
Score Analysis
    Bayern Munich 86.48%
    Holstein Kiel 4.76%
    Draw 8.75%
Bayern MunichDrawHolstein Kiel
3-0 @ 9.66% (0.118 0.12)
4-0 @ 8.48% (0.121 0.12)
2-0 @ 8.25% (0.083 0.08)
3-1 @ 7.75% (-0.033 -0.03)
4-1 @ 6.8% (-0.014 -0.01)
2-1 @ 6.62% (-0.042 -0.04)
5-0 @ 5.96% (0.097 0.1)
5-1 @ 4.78%
1-0 @ 4.7% (0.038 0.04)
6-0 @ 3.49% (0.064 0.06)
3-2 @ 3.11% (-0.065 -0.07)
6-1 @ 2.8% (0.0060000000000002 0.01)
4-2 @ 2.73% (-0.051 -0.05)
5-2 @ 1.92% (-0.032 -0.03)
7-0 @ 1.75% (0.035 0.04)
7-1 @ 1.4% (0.0050000000000001 0.01)
6-2 @ 1.12% (-0.016 -0.02)
Other @ 5.19%
Total : 86.48%
1-1 @ 3.77% (-0.032 -0.03)
2-2 @ 2.66% (-0.061 -0.06)
0-0 @ 1.34% (0.008 0.01)
Other @ 0.99%
Total : 8.75%
1-2 @ 1.51% (-0.038 -0.04)
0-1 @ 1.07% (-0.011 -0.01)
Other @ 2.18%
Total : 4.76%

How you voted: Bayern vs Holstein Kiel

Bayern Munich
89.1%
Draw
8.7%
Holstein Kiel
2.2%
46
Head to Head
Sep 14, 2024 5.30pm
Gameweek 3
Holstein Kiel
1-6
Bayern
Gigovic (82')
Rapp (89')
Musiala (1'), Kane (7', 43', 90+1'), Remberg (13' og.), Olise (65')
Palhinha (81')
Jan 13, 2021 7.45pm
Second Round
Holstein Kiel
2-2
Bayern
(Aggregate 2-2 | Holstein Kiel win 6-5 on penalties)
Bartels (37'), Wahl (90+5')
Meffert (45')
Gnabry (14'), Sane (47')
Sule (61')
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Bayern MunichBayern25194274235161
2Bayer LeverkusenB. Leverkusen25158255302553
3Mainz 05Mainz25135742261644
4Eintracht FrankfurtFrankfurt25126751391242
5Freiburg2512583436-241
6RB Leipzig2510963933639
7Wolfsburg25108749391038
8Stuttgart2510784439537
9Borussia MonchengladbachBorussia M'bach25114103938137
10Borussia DortmundDortmund25105104539635
11Augsburg259882835-735
12Werder Bremen2596103849-1133
13Union BerlinUnion Berlin2576122337-1427
14Hoffenheim2568113247-1526
15St Pauli2564151930-1122
16VfL BochumVfL Bochum2546152550-2518
17Holstein Kiel2545163761-2417
18Heidenheim2544172851-2316


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