Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Newport County win with a probability of 43.72%. A win for Morecambe had a probability of 31.89% and a draw had a probability of 24.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Newport County win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.08%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.53%) and 2-0 (6.82%). The likeliest Morecambe win was 1-2 (7.57%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.35%). The actual scoreline of 5-3 was predicted with a 0.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Newport County would win this match.