Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Chicago Fire win with a probability of 53.71%. A win for Philadelphia Union had a probability of 23.91% and a draw had a probability of 22.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Chicago Fire win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.76%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.62%) and 2-0 (8.17%). The likeliest Philadelphia Union win was 1-2 (6.16%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.3%). The actual scoreline of 4-3 was predicted with a 0.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Chicago Fire would win this match.
Result | ||
Chicago Fire | Draw | Philadelphia Union |
53.71% ( 0.21) | 22.38% ( 0) | 23.91% ( -0.2) |
Both teams to score 59.26% ( -0.26) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
59.67% ( -0.24) | 40.33% ( 0.24) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
37.3% ( -0.24) | 62.71% ( 0.25) |
Chicago Fire Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
84.97% ( -0.01) | 15.03% ( 0.02) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
56.48% ( -0.03) | 43.52% ( 0.03) |
Philadelphia Union Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
69.74% ( -0.3) | 30.26% ( 0.3) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
33.57% ( -0.36) | 66.44% ( 0.36) |
Score Analysis |
Chicago Fire | Draw | Philadelphia Union |
2-1 @ 9.76% ( 0.02) 1-0 @ 8.62% ( 0.09) 2-0 @ 8.17% ( 0.08) 3-1 @ 6.17% ( 0.01) 3-0 @ 5.16% ( 0.05) 3-2 @ 3.69% ( -0.03) 4-1 @ 2.92% ( 0) 4-0 @ 2.44% ( 0.02) 4-2 @ 1.75% ( -0.01) 5-1 @ 1.11% 5-0 @ 0.93% ( 0.01) Other @ 3.01% Total : 53.71% | 1-1 @ 10.3% ( 0.02) 2-2 @ 5.83% ( -0.04) 0-0 @ 4.55% ( 0.05) 3-3 @ 1.47% ( -0.02) Other @ 0.23% Total : 22.38% | 1-2 @ 6.16% ( -0.04) 0-1 @ 5.44% ( 0.01) 0-2 @ 3.25% ( -0.02) 1-3 @ 2.45% ( -0.04) 2-3 @ 2.32% ( -0.04) 0-3 @ 1.3% ( -0.02) Other @ 2.99% Total : 23.91% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Inter MiamiInter Miami | 28 | 19 | 5 | 4 | 65 | 41 | 24 | 62 |
2 | FC CincinnatiCincinnati | 28 | 16 | 4 | 8 | 48 | 36 | 12 | 52 |
3 | Columbus Crew | 27 | 14 | 8 | 5 | 52 | 28 | 24 | 50 |
4 | New York Red BullsNY Red Bulls | 29 | 10 | 13 | 6 | 45 | 37 | 8 | 43 |
5 | Orlando City | 28 | 11 | 7 | 10 | 45 | 41 | 4 | 40 |
6 | New York City FCNY City | 28 | 11 | 7 | 10 | 41 | 37 | 4 | 40 |
7 | Charlotte FCCharlotte FC | 28 | 10 | 8 | 10 | 32 | 31 | 1 | 38 |
8 | Toronto | 29 | 11 | 3 | 15 | 38 | 51 | -13 | 36 |
9 | DC United | 29 | 8 | 9 | 12 | 44 | 57 | -13 | 33 |
10 | Atlanta UnitedAtlanta | 28 | 8 | 7 | 13 | 36 | 40 | -4 | 31 |
11 | Philadelphia UnionPhiladelphia | 28 | 7 | 9 | 12 | 48 | 46 | 2 | 30 |
12 | CF MontrealMontreal | 28 | 7 | 9 | 12 | 37 | 59 | -22 | 30 |
13 | Chicago Fire | 29 | 7 | 8 | 14 | 36 | 51 | -15 | 29 |
14 | Nashville SCNashville | 28 | 7 | 8 | 13 | 28 | 44 | -16 | 29 |
15 | New England RevolutionNew England | 27 | 8 | 3 | 16 | 30 | 54 | -24 | 27 |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Los Angeles GalaxyLA Galaxy | 29 | 16 | 7 | 6 | 57 | 40 | 17 | 55 |
2 | Los Angeles FCLos Angeles | 27 | 14 | 6 | 7 | 50 | 36 | 14 | 48 |
3 | Real Salt LakeSalt Lake | 28 | 13 | 8 | 7 | 54 | 40 | 14 | 47 |
4 | Colorado RapidsColorado | 28 | 14 | 5 | 9 | 55 | 46 | 9 | 47 |
5 | Seattle SoundersSeattle | 29 | 13 | 7 | 9 | 43 | 32 | 11 | 46 |
6 | Vancouver WhitecapsVancouver | 27 | 13 | 6 | 8 | 46 | 35 | 11 | 45 |
7 | Houston DynamoHouston | 28 | 12 | 8 | 8 | 41 | 32 | 9 | 44 |
8 | Portland TimbersPortland | 28 | 11 | 7 | 10 | 56 | 48 | 8 | 40 |
9 | Minnesota UnitedMinnesota Utd | 28 | 11 | 6 | 11 | 47 | 46 | 1 | 39 |
10 | Dallas | 28 | 9 | 7 | 12 | 44 | 45 | -1 | 34 |
11 | Austin FCAustin | 28 | 9 | 7 | 12 | 31 | 40 | -9 | 34 |
12 | Sporting Kansas CityKansas | 29 | 7 | 7 | 15 | 45 | 55 | -10 | 28 |
13 | St Louis City | 29 | 5 | 13 | 11 | 41 | 56 | -15 | 28 |
14 | San Jose EarthquakesEarthquakes | 28 | 5 | 2 | 21 | 34 | 65 | -31 | 17 |