MX23RW : Thursday, November 14 22:10:18| >> :60:249:249:
Estonia national football team
Nations League | League C
Oct 11, 2024 at 5pm UK
A. Le Coq Arena
Azerbaijan national football team

Estonia
3 - 1
Azerbaijan

Jakovlev (32'), Sinyavskiy (45+2'), Robert Shein (71')
Robert Shein (37'), Anier (58')
FT(HT: 2-1)
Bayramov (45+1' pen.)

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Friday's Nations League clash between Estonia and Azerbaijan, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

All competitions
Nations League
Last Game: Sweden 3-0 Estonia
Sunday, September 8 at 7.45pm in Nations League
All competitions
Nations League
Last Game: Slovakia 2-0 Azerbaijan
Sunday, September 8 at 5pm in Nations League

We said: Estonia 0-1 Azerbaijan

Even though Azerbaijan do not pick up many points on the road, they should have the firepower to outgun an ailing Estonia side that lacks depth in the final third. The visitors are set to get their Group 1 campaign up and running, leaving their hosts to contemplate the prospect of relegation. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Estonia win with a probability of 40.55%. A win for Azerbaijan had a probability of 34.16% and a draw had a probability of 25.3%.

The most likely scoreline for a Estonia win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.04%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.73%) and 2-0 (6.61%). The likeliest Azerbaijan win was 0-1 (8.17%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.94%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Estonia would win this match.

Result
EstoniaDrawAzerbaijan
40.55% (-0.843 -0.84) 25.3% (-0.147 -0.15) 34.16% (0.997 1)
Both teams to score 56.34% (0.779 0.78)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
52.67% (0.893 0.89)47.34% (-0.886 -0.89)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
30.45% (0.822 0.82)69.56% (-0.81699999999999 -0.82)
Estonia Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
76.83% (-0.027000000000001 -0.03)23.18% (0.033000000000001 0.03)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
42.94% (-0.044000000000004 -0.04)57.06% (0.048999999999999 0.05)
Azerbaijan Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
73.33% (1.045 1.05)26.67% (-1.038 -1.04)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
38.08% (1.355 1.36)61.92% (-1.349 -1.35)
Score Analysis
    Estonia 40.55%
    Azerbaijan 34.16%
    Draw 25.29%
EstoniaDrawAzerbaijan
1-0 @ 9.04% (-0.347 -0.35)
2-1 @ 8.73% (-0.082000000000001 -0.08)
2-0 @ 6.61% (-0.261 -0.26)
3-1 @ 4.26% (-0.044 -0.04)
3-0 @ 3.22% (-0.13 -0.13)
3-2 @ 2.81% (0.053 0.05)
4-1 @ 1.56% (-0.017 -0.02)
4-0 @ 1.18% (-0.049 -0.05)
4-2 @ 1.03% (0.019 0.02)
Other @ 2.12%
Total : 40.55%
1-1 @ 11.94% (-0.1 -0.1)
0-0 @ 6.18% (-0.232 -0.23)
2-2 @ 5.77% (0.113 0.11)
3-3 @ 1.24% (0.059 0.06)
Other @ 0.16%
Total : 25.29%
0-1 @ 8.17% (-0.061 -0.06)
1-2 @ 7.89% (0.163 0.16)
0-2 @ 5.4% (0.116 0.12)
1-3 @ 3.48% (0.17 0.17)
2-3 @ 2.54% (0.122 0.12)
0-3 @ 2.38% (0.119 0.12)
1-4 @ 1.15% (0.088 0.09)
Other @ 3.16%
Total : 34.16%

How you voted: Estonia vs Azerbaijan

Estonia
19.8%
Draw
18.6%
Azerbaijan
61.7%
167
Head to Head
Oct 13, 2023 5pm
Group Stage
Estonia
0-2
Azerbaijan

Pikk (18'), Kait (68'), Vetkal (90+1')
Bayramov (9'), Seydayev (45+4' pen.)
Mahmudov (22'), Mammadov (40'), Madatov (45+1')
Jun 17, 2023 5pm
Group Stage
Azerbaijan
1-1
Estonia
Krivotsyuk (62')
Bayramov (72')
Sappinen (27')
Mets (42'), Kait (90+2')
rhs 2.0
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