While Vizela are playing only for pride from here on, Estrela's relegation battle is still ongoing, and they will know that this is about the best opponent they could have chosen to face in the penultimate match of the season. However, the Tricolores have struggled mightily to win on the road, drawing each of their last four, and we feel they will end up taking only a point from this one as well.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Vizela win with a probability of 45%. A win for Estrela Amadora had a probability of 29.61% and a draw had a probability of 25.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Vizela win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.18%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.15%) and 2-0 (7.74%). The likeliest Estrela Amadora win was 0-1 (7.94%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.05%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 1.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Vizela would win this match.
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