Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Adelaide United win with a probability of 43.54%. A win for Newcastle Jets had a probability of 32.37% and a draw had a probability of 24.1%.
The most likely scoreline for an Adelaide United win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.05%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.1%) and 2-0 (6.59%). The likeliest Newcastle Jets win was 1-2 (7.63%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.12%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Adelaide United in this match.