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Australian A-League | Gameweek 14
Jan 27, 2023 at 8.45am UK
McDonald Jones Stadium
Brisbane Roar

Newcastle Jets
4 - 0
Brisbane Roar

Sotirio (52'), Buhagiar (72'), Mikeltadze (76'), Goodwin (90+4')
FT(HT: 0-0)

Aldred (55'), Hore (59')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Friday's Australian A-League clash between Newcastle Jets and Brisbane Roar, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Newcastle Jets 1-1 Western Sydney
Sunday, January 22 at 4am in Australian A-League
Last Game: Brisbane Roar 0-0 Melbourne City
Saturday, January 21 at 8.45am in Australian A-League

We said: Newcastle Jets 0-1 Brisbane Roar

Both teams have struggled going forward so far this season, while the visitors are also excelling defensively unlike their hosts, and as a result, if one goal is to split the sides we fancy Moon's men to seal a narrow victory. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Brisbane Roar win with a probability of 41.1%. A win for Newcastle Jets had a probability of 33.84% and a draw had a probability of 25.1%.

The most likely scoreline for a Brisbane Roar win was 0-1 with a probability of 8.86%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.8%) and 0-2 (6.61%). The likeliest Newcastle Jets win was 1-0 (7.9%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.79%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 0.8% likelihood.

Result
Newcastle JetsDrawBrisbane Roar
33.84% (0.449 0.45) 25.06% (-0.229 -0.23) 41.1% (-0.215 -0.22)
Both teams to score 57.06% (0.924 0.92)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
53.64% (1.145 1.15)46.36% (-1.141 -1.14)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
31.35% (1.07 1.07)68.65% (-1.065 -1.07)
Newcastle Jets Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
73.6% (0.825 0.83)26.4% (-0.82 -0.82)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
38.44% (1.084 1.08)61.56% (-1.08 -1.08)
Brisbane Roar Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
77.53% (0.39400000000001 0.39)22.47% (-0.391 -0.39)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
43.98% (0.584 0.58)56.03% (-0.58 -0.58)
Score Analysis
    Newcastle Jets 33.84%
    Brisbane Roar 41.1%
    Draw 25.06%
Newcastle JetsDrawBrisbane Roar
1-0 @ 7.9% (-0.197 -0.2)
2-1 @ 7.86% (0.08 0.08)
2-0 @ 5.26% (-0.0070000000000006 -0.01)
3-1 @ 3.49% (0.115 0.12)
3-2 @ 2.6% (0.115 0.12)
3-0 @ 2.34% (0.051 0.05)
4-1 @ 1.16% (0.064 0.06)
Other @ 3.23%
Total : 33.84%
1-1 @ 11.79% (-0.16 -0.16)
0-0 @ 5.93% (-0.291 -0.29)
2-2 @ 5.86% (0.127 0.13)
3-3 @ 1.3% (0.072 0.07)
Other @ 0.18%
Total : 25.06%
0-1 @ 8.86% (-0.327 -0.33)
1-2 @ 8.8% (-0.012 -0.01)
0-2 @ 6.61% (-0.165 -0.17)
1-3 @ 4.38% (0.045 0.04)
0-3 @ 3.29% (-0.043 -0.04)
2-3 @ 2.92% (0.096 0.1)
1-4 @ 1.64% (0.035 0.03)
0-4 @ 1.23% (-0.0010000000000001 -0)
2-4 @ 1.09% (0.048 0.05)
Other @ 2.29%
Total : 41.1%

How you voted: Newcastle Jets vs Brisbane Roar

Newcastle Jets
18.0%
Draw
39.3%
Brisbane Roar
42.6%
61
Head to Head
Apr 3, 2022 7.05am
Brisbane Roar
2-0
Newcastle Jets
Hore (83'), Ivanovic (90+3')
O'Shea (8'), Hore (21'), Akbari (59'), Daley (66'), Aldred (89')

Murnane (25'), Siatravanis (41'), Mauragis (67'), Jurman (72')
Mauragis (80')
Feb 3, 2022 8.45am
Newcastle Jets
2-1
Brisbane Roar
Freke (22' og.), Thurgate (70')
Hoffman (33'), Elsey (79'), Duncan (85')
Lescano (64')
Daley (45'), Brown (68'), Hingert (72'), Trewin (90+3')
May 21, 2021 10.05am
Feb 14, 2021 7.10am
rhs 2.0
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