Atletico Mineiro and Cerro Porteno meet in the Copa Libertadores on Tuesday evening having both recorded four points from their opening two fixtures in Group H.
However, with third-placed Deportivo La Guaira just two points adrift, neither side will want to reach the midway point with a potentially-costly defeat.
Match preview
Having missed out on qualification for last year's tournament, Atletico Mineiro are eager to make an impression this time around as they bid to replicate their success in 2013.
In comparison to some of their Brazilian rivals, they have been provided with a more favourable group, but recently-appointed head coach Cuca knows that there is plenty of work ahead for his team.
Cuca was naturally disappointed with starting the group stages with a 1-1 draw at Deportivo, a result which they had to earn through a second-half equaliser.
Atletico were also pushed hard by America de Cali on matchday two with the decisive goals coming from Hulk either side of the hour mark.
The veteran forward has now contributed four goals and two assists since joining the club at the start of the year.
Cerro Porteno are currently involved in a wide-open title race in Paraguay with just one point separating the top four teams in the division.
Nevertheless, Francisco Arce and his squad are placing as much priority on this competition, a decade after they lasted reached the semi-finals.
Defeating America de Cali by a 2-0 scoreline got their campaign off to the perfect start, but there was frustration after a goalless draw at home to Deportivo.
On the plus side, Porteno have now kept four successive clean sheets in all competitions, a strong response to having previously conceded six goals in two domestic games.
- D
- W
- L
- W
- D
- W
- W
- W
- W
- D
- D
- L
- W
- W
- D
- W
Team News
The home side will be without Nathan after he was sent off during added-on time of the win over America de Cali.
The playmaker had been in contention for a recall after Atletico scored twice in six minutes after his introduction off the substitutes' bench.
Hulk is likely to come back into the team after his double, leaving Eduardo Vargas in line to be named as a replacement, while Alan Franco may feature in midfield.
Despite the goalless draw last time out, Arce may look to keep changes to a minimum as his side look to build momentum.
Mauro Boselli will be recalled to the side after scoring as a substitute against Olimpia in the latest league game.
Atletico Mineiro possible starting lineup:
Everson; Mariano, Rabello, Alonso, Arana; Franco, Tche Tche, Fernandez; Savarino, Hulk, Keno
Cerro Porteno possible starting lineup:
Jean; Espinola, Patino, Duarte, Arzamendia; Gimenez, Cardozo Lucena, Villasanti, Aquino; Boselli, Carrizo
We say: Atletico Mineiro 2-1 Cerro Porteno
Having kept two successive shutouts, the visitors will be confident of causing the upset on Tuesday night. Nevertheless, we are backing the home side to show their class, edging a competitive encounter by the odd goal in three.
Top tip
Darren Plant
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Mineiro win with a probability of 61.8%. A draw had a probability of 23.9% and a win for Cerro Porteno had a probability of 14.31%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Mineiro win was 1-0 with a probability of 16.44%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (13.65%) and 2-1 (8.9%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.71%), while for a Cerro Porteno win it was 0-1 (6.45%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 3.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Atletico Mineiro would win this match.
