Champions League | Round of 16 | 1st Leg
Mar 4, 2025 at 8pm UK
Estadio Santiago Bernabeu
Real Madrid2 - 1Atletico
The Match
Match Report
Real Madrid battle to a hard-fought 2-1 victory over Atletico Madrid at the Santiago Bernabeu, giving Los Blancos the upper hand heading into next week's second leg.
Team News
Sports Mole rounds up all of the latest injury and suspension news ahead of Tuesday's Champions League clash between Real Madrid and Atletico Madrid.
Preview
Sports Mole previews Tuesday's Champions League clash between Real Madrid and Atletico Madrid, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.
Predicted Lineups
Sports Mole takes an in-depth look at how Real Madrid could line up for Tuesday's Champions League last-16 first leg with Atletico Madrid.
Injuries & Suspensions
Sports Mole looks at Real Madrid's injury and suspension news ahead of their Champions League clash with Atletico Madrid.
Form, Standings, Stats
Last Game: Betis 2-1 Real Madrid
Saturday, March 1 at 5.30pm in La Liga
Saturday, March 1 at 5.30pm in La Liga
Goals
for
for
55
Last Game: Atletico 1-0 Athletic Bilbao
Saturday, March 1 at 8pm in La Liga
Saturday, March 1 at 8pm in La Liga
Goals
for
for
43
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Real Madrid win with a probability of 53.65%. A win for Atletico Madrid had a probability of 23.93% and a draw had a probability of 22.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Real Madrid win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.76%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.66%) and 2-0 (8.18%). The likeliest Atletico Madrid win was 1-2 (6.16%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.33%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Real Madrid in this match.
| Result | ||
| Real Madrid | Draw | Atletico Madrid |
53.65% ( -1.74) | 22.42% ( 0.23) | 23.93% ( 1.51) |
| Both teams to score 59.16% ( 1.16) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 59.53% ( 0.64) | 40.47% ( -0.63) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 37.15% ( 0.65) | 62.85% ( -0.65) |
| Real Madrid Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 84.9% ( -0.35) | 15.1% ( 0.35) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 56.35% ( -0.67) | 43.65% ( 0.67) |
| Atletico Madrid Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 69.68% ( 1.64) | 30.32% ( -1.64) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 33.5% ( 1.92) | 66.5% ( -1.91) |
| Score Analysis |
Real Madrid 53.65%
Atletico Madrid 23.93%
Draw 22.42%
| Real Madrid | Draw | Atletico Madrid |
| 2-1 @ 9.76% ( -0.09) 1-0 @ 8.66% ( -0.37)2-0 @ 8.18% ( -0.45)3-1 @ 6.15% ( -0.13)3-0 @ 5.15% ( -0.35)3-2 @ 3.67% ( 0.09)4-1 @ 2.91% ( -0.1)4-0 @ 2.44% ( -0.2)4-2 @ 1.73% ( 0.02)5-1 @ 1.1% ( -0.05)5-0 @ 0.92% ( -0.09)Other @ 2.98% Total : 53.65% | 1-1 @ 10.33% ( 0.04) 2-2 @ 5.83% ( 0.21)0-0 @ 4.58% ( -0.13)3-3 @ 1.46% ( 0.1)Other @ 0.23% Total : 22.42% | 1-2 @ 6.16% ( 0.29) 0-1 @ 5.47% ( 0.09)0-2 @ 3.26% ( 0.19)1-3 @ 2.45% ( 0.22)2-3 @ 2.32% ( 0.18)0-3 @ 1.3% ( 0.13)Other @ 2.98% Total : 23.93% |
How you voted: Real Madrid vs Atletico
Real Madrid
62.7%Draw
22.5%Atletico Madrid
14.8%413
Head to Head
Sep 29, 2024 8pm
Gameweek 8
Atletico
1-1
Real Madrid
Jan 18, 2024 8.30pm
Round of 16
Atletico
4-2
Real Madrid
Lino (39'), Morata (57'), Griezmann (100'), Riquelme (119')
Morata (58'), Hermoso (68'), De Paul (78'), Koke (80'), Simeone (83'), Griezmann (101'), Witsel (113')
Morata (58'), Hermoso (68'), De Paul (78'), Koke (80'), Simeone (83'), Griezmann (101'), Witsel (113')
Oblak (45+1' og.), Joselu (82')
Junior (45'), Camavinga (56'), Diaz (68'), Tchouameni (85'), Bellingham (87'), Carvajal (89')
Junior (45'), Camavinga (56'), Diaz (68'), Tchouameni (85'), Bellingham (87'), Carvajal (89')
Form Guide
Build-up
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