Finding the right defensive formula at home has not been an issue for Shakhtyor Soligorsk over the past few weeks, and advancing in the Champions League would at least make up for their early setbacks in defending their Belarusian title.
One can expect Tashuev's men to once again frustrate their more revered visitors, who may have to rely on penalties to avoid being knocked out in the first round for the first time ever.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Maribor win with a probability of 38.8%. A win for Shakhtyor Soligorsk had a probability of 34.52% and a draw had a probability of 26.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Maribor win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.32%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.37%) and 0-2 (6.81%). The likeliest Shakhtyor Soligorsk win was 1-0 (9.61%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.68%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 6.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Maribor would win this match.
0.08) 
-0.1) 
