Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lanus win with a probability of 42.95%. A win for Newell's Old Boys had a probability of 29.11% and a draw had a probability of 27.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lanus win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.85%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.45%) and 2-0 (8.33%). The likeliest Newell's Old Boys win was 0-1 (10.06%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.04%). The actual scoreline of 2-4 was predicted with a 0.4% likelihood.