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Hertha Berlin logo
DFB-Pokal | Second Round
Nov 1, 2023 at 7.45pm UK
Olympiastadion Berlin
Mainz logo

Hertha Berlin
3 - 0
Mainz

Reese (45+3' pen.), Tabakovic (50' pen., 61')
Zeefuik (78')
FT(HT: 1-0)

Ajorque (90+3')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Wednesday's DFB-Pokal clash between Hertha Berlin and Mainz 05, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Hertha Berlin

All competitions
DFB-Pokal
Last Game: Hertha Berlin 3-1 SC Paderborn
Saturday, October 28 at 12pm in 2.Bundesliga

Mainz 05

All competitions
DFB-Pokal
Last Game: VfL Bochum 2-2 Mainz
Friday, October 27 at 7.30pm in Bundesliga

We said: Hertha Berlin 2-1 Mainz 05

 Mainz have began the season in disastrous form, collecting only three points from nine matches to sit bottom of the Bundesliga, while Hertha would have expected to be higher than mid-table after 11 games in the second tier. As such, neither team are likely to play with much confidence on Wednesday, with their destiny in their respective leagues considered to be a higher priority than the DFB-Pokal. However, we expect Hertha to relish the challenge of facing a side competing above them and secure a narrow win. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mainz 05 win with a probability of 43.21%. A win for Hertha Berlin had a probability of 33.38% and a draw had a probability of 23.4%.

The most likely scoreline for a Mainz 05 win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.92%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.15%) and 0-2 (6.07%). The likeliest Hertha Berlin win was 2-1 (7.72%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.5%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 2.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Hertha Berlin would win this match.

Result
Hertha BerlinDrawMainz 05
33.38% (0.516 0.52) 23.4% (0.118 0.12) 43.21% (-0.643 -0.64)
Both teams to score 62.91% (-0.242 -0.24)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
61.34% (-0.4 -0.4)38.65% (0.389 0.39)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
39.04% (-0.42 -0.42)60.96% (0.411 0.41)
Hertha Berlin Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
76.98% (0.099999999999994 0.1)23.01% (-0.11 -0.11)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
43.18% (0.151 0.15)56.81% (-0.161 -0.16)
Mainz 05 Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
81.71% (-0.428 -0.43)18.29% (0.419 0.42)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
50.64% (-0.724 -0.72)49.35% (0.712 0.71)
Score Analysis
    Hertha Berlin 33.38%
    Mainz 05 43.21%
    Draw 23.39%
Hertha BerlinDrawMainz 05
2-1 @ 7.72% (0.086 0.09)
1-0 @ 6.18% (0.133 0.13)
2-0 @ 4.54% (0.112 0.11)
3-1 @ 3.78% (0.054 0.05)
3-2 @ 3.21% (0.0029999999999997 0)
3-0 @ 2.22% (0.061 0.06)
4-1 @ 1.39% (0.024 0.02)
4-2 @ 1.18% (0.004 0)
Other @ 3.16%
Total : 33.38%
1-1 @ 10.5% (0.09 0.09)
2-2 @ 6.56% (-0.015000000000001 -0.02)
0-0 @ 4.21% (0.077 0.08)
3-3 @ 1.82% (-0.023 -0.02)
Other @ 0.31%
Total : 23.39%
1-2 @ 8.92% (-0.048999999999999 -0.05)
0-1 @ 7.15% (0.034999999999999 0.03)
0-2 @ 6.07% (-0.053 -0.05)
1-3 @ 5.05% (-0.097 -0.1)
2-3 @ 3.71% (-0.059 -0.06)
0-3 @ 3.44% (-0.077 -0.08)
1-4 @ 2.15% (-0.071 -0.07)
2-4 @ 1.58% (-0.047 -0.05)
0-4 @ 1.46% (-0.053 -0.05)
Other @ 3.68%
Total : 43.21%

How you voted: Hertha Berlin vs Mainz

Hertha Berlin
60.9%
Draw
30.4%
Mainz 05
8.7%
46
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Mainz
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Ajorque (57')
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Mainz
1-1
Hertha Berlin
Caci (90+4')
Tousart (30')
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1-2
Mainz
Selke (45+5' pen.)
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